With the baseball world buzzing over Johan Santana trade scenarios and the annual Winter Meetings just days away, the Twins made an unexpected big splash Wednesday by sending Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Devil Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. In one move new general manager Bill Smith significantly reshaped the roster while showing that he's already more willing to take risks than predecessor Terry Ryan was during his final days at the helm.

Smith's first risk is a doozy. Originally the trade had Garza, Bartlett, and Juan Rincon heading to Tampa Bay, but concerns over the status of Rincon's balky elbow caused the Twins to inexplicably substitute Morlan while keeping the remainder of the deal intact. While it'll no doubt be a glossed-over aspect of a blockbuster trade, the difference between Rincon and Morlan is substantial and increases the already strong chance that the deal will be unkind to the Twins over the long haul.

On the most basic level the trade fits the team's logical, oft-stated plan to part with pitching depth in order to address weaknesses offensively, with the Twins swapping a former top pitching prospect for a former top hitting prospect. However, the trade actually involves specific players rather than simple team-building generalities and once you get past the Garza-for-Young portion of the swap it tilts pretty heavily in the Devil Rays' favor both short and long term.

Garza ranked as the team's No. 1 prospect heading into the season and pitched well after being called up from Triple-A in July, posting a 3.69 ERA and 67-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 83 innings. A 2005 first-round pick who turned 24 years old earlier this month and won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season, Garza looks capable of being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter right now and has the potential to be a No. 1 starter down the road if his secondary pitches improve.

Morlan ranked as the team's No. 8 prospect coming into the season and improved his stock by posting a 3.10 ERA and 99-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 70 innings between high Single-A and Double-A. The 21-year-old former third-round pick has dominated in the minors and projects as a late-inning reliever who could be ready to make a significant big-league impact as soon as 2008. Meanwhile, Rincon is set to make about $4 million via arbitration and is in the midst of a steady decline.

Last but not least the Twins surprisingly sent their 28-year-old starting shortstop packing, although perhaps it isn't such a shock given the lengths that they went to avoid handing Bartlett the starting gig in the first place. Bartlett remained at Triple-A in favor of Juan Castro long after he'd proven himself in the minors and then hit .282/.350/.374 with 33 steals and strong defense in 239 games after finally taking over for Castro in mid-2006, yet a hitting-starved team with no clear replacement just let him go.

The package that the Twins received in return for Garza, Morlan, and Bartlett essentially means that Young must become a superstar for the trade to be successful. That's certainly possible, because there are many people who've long felt that the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft is a truly elite talent. Baseball America named him their Minor League Player of the Year in 2005 and ranked him as the single best prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2006 season.

When Young finished his minor-league career that August he had a .318/.362/.518 hitting line in 353 games. He then made his MLB debut as a 20-year-old, batting .317/.336/.476 in 30 games with the Devil Rays while narrowly retaining his "rookie" status. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 3 prospect in baseball heading into 2007 and he placed fourth on the annual AG.com top-50 list, but his spot on my list came with some stated concerns about plate discipline and power development:

Young hit .326 with 45 homers and 78 walks in his first 215 games while reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old, but has since seen his power and plate discipline decline. Young continued to hit well after a promotion to Triple-A in mid-2005, batting .306 over a 168-game stretch that includes a month in the majors, but managed just 17 homers and 20 walks during that span. He's still bound for stardom, but might be a different type of hitter than he initially appeared.

The questions about his power and plate discipline loom even larger now, with Young managing just 13 homers and 26 walks in 681 plate appearances while hitting a modest .288/.316/.408 during his first full season. His long-term potential remains very good, because players who merely hold their own in the majors as 21-year-olds often turn out to be special, but it's concerning that he's hacked at everything while showing only moderate power since advancing past Double-A in mid-2005:

                       PA      AVG      IsoP     BB%      SO%
Single-A/Double-A     936     .327      .228     7.8     19.9
Triple-A/Majors      1416     .297      .141     3.1     18.1

Young has maintained a high batting average wherever he's gone, which is incredibly impressive for someone who was a teenager at Triple-A and reached the majors at 20. However, after posting a fantastic .228 Isolated Power in 936 plate appearances between Single-A and Double-A, his Isolated Power in 1,416 trips to the plate between Triple-A and majors has been a pedestrian .141. In other words, he's lost about 40 percent of the power that he showed early in his pro career.

To be clear, a 21-year-old who bats .297 with a .141 Isolated Power in 1,400 trips to the plate between Triple-A and the majors is a very good prospect. However, those numbers don't necessarily forecast MVP-caliber greatness, which is what many projected for Young and what the Twins may need to "win" the trade. A big part of the decline in power is that Young has been an extreme ground-ball hitter in the majors, which makes it difficult to hit the ball into the gaps and impossible to hit the ball over the fence.

Beyond the power issue, another concern with Young's recent performance is that his plate discipline has vanished. Never especially patient, Young walked in 7.8 percent of his plate appearances between Single-A and Double-A, which is a shade better than Torii Hunter's career mark. Since then he's drawn a free pass in just 3.1 percent of his plate appearances, which is an abysmal rate that when combined with his drop in power now makes Young anything but a sure thing to become an elite hitter.

That's obviously the bad news. The good news is that, flaws and all, Young remains a strong bet to become a good hitter. In fact, after being about 10 percent below average in 2007, he can probably be expected to be more or less a league-average hitter in 2008. That may not seem overly impressive, but it'd be plenty good for a 22-year-old. Even if he fails to develop much more power and continues to swing at everything, Young still figures to eventually settle in as a solidly above-average hitter.

Of course, if Young becomes "only" a solidly above-average hitter there's a very good chance that the Twins will regret making the trade, because Harris and Pridie don't have nearly the kind of long-term upside that the three players heading to the Devil Rays possess. Garza ranked No. 8 overall on the same AG.com top-50 prospects list that had Young fourth, Morlan is among the best relief prospects around, and the notion that Bartlett-for-Harris is a simple swap of young shortstops is very misleading.

Taken by the Cubs in the fifth round of the 2001 draft, Harris was traded to the Expos in mid-2004 as part of the massive four-team "Nomar Garciaparra trade" that sent Doug Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox. Almost exactly two years later he was traded to Cincinnati in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky's first big deal as Reds general manager, with Krivsky then giving him to the Devil Rays last winter for a player to be named later.

Throughout all the bouncing around, Harris consistently put up strong numbers in the minors. He's a career .294/.359/.467 hitter in 2,500 minor-league plate appearances, including .287/.349/.459 in over 1,300 plate appearances at Triple-A. Given his first extended chance in the majors with Tampa Bay, he matched his Triple-A production by batting .286/.343/.434 with 12 homers, 50 total extra-base hits, and a 96-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 137 games. Here's how he compares to Bartlett offensively:

TRIPLE-A      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     IsoP     IsoD      SO%     SB
Bartlett     821     .323     .383     .458     .135     .060     12.1    103
Harris      1351     .287     .349     .459     .172     .062     16.5     42

MAJORS        PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     IsoP     IsoD      SO%     SB
Bartlett    1208     .272     .341     .362     .090     .069     13.0     39
Harris       696     .273     .331     .418     .145     .058     16.5      4

While certainly not a power hitter--he's shown about as much pop as Young did as a rookie--Harris has far more power than Bartlett and possesses similar plate discipline. Bartlett has the edge in on-base skills thanks primarily to a lower strikeout rate and better speed, which also makes him a far more dangerous and effective baserunner. Add it all up and they're similarly valuable offensively, which makes the swap of shortstops seem like a relatively even one.

And it is, except for one huge factor. Harris played 750 innings at shortstop in 2007, but that was due mostly to the Devil Rays lacking other options. He was clearly stretched there defensively after rarely seeing time at the position during his minor-league career and was eventually moved to second base when manager Joe Maddon grew tired of his obvious lack of range. Meanwhile, despite a high number of errors Bartlett has proven himself to be a solid defensive shortstop thanks to above-average range.

              INN     FLD%       ZR      RZR
Bartlett     2681     .967     .854     .835
Harris        778     .966     .755     .781

They have identical fielding percentages, but that just shows Harris as less than sure-handed while displaying the uselessness of evaluating defense from fielding percentages. Zone Rating and Revised Zone Rating measure the percentage of balls hit into a player's "zone" defensively that he converts into an out and Bartlett has done so about 10 percent more often than Harris. That's a huge disparity and Harris' defensive numbers show him as one of the worst shortstops in baseball last season.

In other words, while they're close offensively Bartlett has a huge defensive edge that leaves a gaping hole in the infield. If the Twins replace Bartlett with Harris at shortstop, the dropoff figures to be at least double-digit runs and could be much more. If the Twins correctly realize that and instead view Harris as an option only at second or third base, then they've traded away a 28-year-old shortstop who's above average on both sides of the ball for a lesser, non-shortstop without having an in-house replacement.

Harris is a solid player, but doesn't field well enough to be a starting shortstop, might be stretched even as a regular second baseman, and doesn't hit enough to be a big asset at third base. There are no doubt more trades on the way and perhaps one will bring a quality shortstop back, but until then the Twins' options are Harris, Nick Punto, and Alexi Casilla. Harris and Casilla would be big downgrades defensively and Punto would simply shift the lineup hole from the position Harris fills to shortstop.

In other words, the Twins have filled two lineup holes with Young and Harris, but the cost to do so was a pair of extremely talented young pitchers and by also dealing Bartlett in the process they've opened up a different hole that's a lot more difficult to capably fill both offensively and defensively. Of course, there's a third player coming from the Devil Rays along with Young and Harris, and the Twins have clearly been very high on him for years.

Back in 2005 the Twins selected Pridie in the Rule 5 draft, only to offer him back to the Devil Rays prior to Opening Day. At the time he was a 21-year-old who was limited to 29 games at Double-A during the previous because of injuries and hit just .219/.276/.396. His prospect stock has improved since then, and this time around Pridie is a 24-year-old who hit .303/.352/.487 with 14 homers, 57 total extra-base hits, and a 92-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 134 games between Double-A and Triple-A.

Unfortunately, Pridie's success in 2007 sticks out from the rest of his otherwise mediocre track record and he had a horrible season at Double-A in 2006, batting .230/.281/.304 in 132 games. He's still young, has enough speed to play center field, and has occasionally shown the ability to hit, but Pridie's plate discipline is sub par and his power is modest. Unless 2007 is the beginning of a sustained breakout, he looks like a fourth outfielder.

Add it all up and the Twins have traded two big pieces of their current team and three potentially big pieces of their future teams for Young and a pair of role players. The Twins' front office clearly believes that Young will become a very special hitter and despite some sizable current flaws he's absolutely within range of that career path. However, anything short of Young becoming a perennial All-Star and occasional MVP candidate leaves an awful lot of room for the Twins to regret Smith's first big trade.

When it comes to teams potentially being in the mix for Johan Santana, the two keys are money and young talent. Any team trading for Santana would be doing so with an eye toward locking him up to a long-term contract extension that figures to approach $150 million or more, which significantly limits the pool of suitors. Beyond that, any team trading for Santana would likely be sending the Twins an impressive package of young talent in return, which again limits the potential landing spots.

There are some teams that have plenty of money and some teams that have plenty of young talent, but only a handful of teams that can claim both. Among that select group of teams, the Yankees stand out as perhaps the best fit to acquire Santana. Not only would the Yankees have little problem handing Santana a $150 million extension, they have a strong collection of young players both at the big-league level and in the minors. In other words, they can pay Santana and they can pay the Twins.

On my annual "Top 50 Prospects" list, published way back in mid-March, Phil Hughes ranked as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball behind only Royals third baseman Alex Gordon. At the time I wrote that Hughes was "a near-perfect pitching prospect." Since then he posted a 1.91 ERA in 37.2 minor-league innings and then had a 13-start stint with the Yankees in which he went 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA, 58-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .235 opponent's batting average in 72.2 innings as a 21-year-old.

Hughes' minor-league track record is nearly flawless and the former first-round pick has overpowering stuff, which the Rangers experienced first-hand when he no-hit them for six-plus innings before leaving his second career start with a hamstring injury. Short of cloning Francisco Liriano or convincing the Mariners to part with Felix Hernandez, Hughes represents the best chance the Twins have of replacing Santana with an early-20s pitcher capable of being a true No. 1 starter.

He's a young, MLB-ready stud who could step right into the rotation for Santana and won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season. No 21-year-old pitcher is a sure thing and literally replacing Santana will be nearly impossible, but Hughes is as good a bet as you'll find. He's also not alone. The Yankees also have Joba Chamberlain, another 21-year-old former first-round pick who blitzed through the minors with a 2.45 ERA and 135-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88.1 innings.

Chamberlain then joined the Yankees' bullpen and posted a 0.38 ERA, 34-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .145 opponent's batting average in 24 innings down the stretch. Despite his tremendous early success in the bullpen, Chamberlain still projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter who could fall back into being a dominant late-inning reliever. He's perhaps less polished, but like Hughes he's also an MLB-ready 21-year-old with No. 1-starter upside who can't become a free agent until after 2013.

Amazingly, the Yankees' collection of impressive young arms doesn't stop there. Ian Kennedy isn't on the same level as Hughes and Chamberlain, but he's another former first-round pick who posted a 1.89 ERA in three starts with the Yankees as a 22-year-old. Kennedy's minor-league resume includes a 1.87 ERA and 165-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 149.1 innings, but he projects more as a Kevin Slowey-style No. 2 or No. 3 starter thanks to less than overpowering stuff.

While top-notch young pitching is always nice, the Twins have plenty of that on their own and are in need of young bats. New York is pretty well covered there too. At the big-league level, Robinson Cano is a 24-year-old second baseman who's proven to be better than expected defensively while batting .314/.346/.489 in 414 games. He's one of the best second basemen in baseball already and has three more years before hitting the open market, but will begin to get expensive soon thanks to arbitration.

Melky Cabrera is a switch-hitting center fielder who's batted .275/.340/.388 in 286 big-league games through the age of 22. Reviews of his defense are mixed and it remains to be seen how much power he'll develop long term, but Cabrera could immediately replace Torii Hunter while likely giving the Twins at worst league-average production at the position over the next four seasons. Dipping down into the minors, the Yankees also have several big-time hitting prospects.

A toolsy outfielder who was taken out of high school in the eighth round of the 2005 draft, Austin Jackson batted .304/.370/.476 with 13 homers, 52 total extra-base hits, 33 steals, and a 109-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 128 games between two levels of Single-A as a 20-year-old. He's several years away from the majors and is far from a sure thing, but Jackson has tremendous potential on both sides of the ball and could be the long-term answer in center field.

At 18 years old Jose Tabata is even further from the majors than Jackson, but he batted .307/.371/.392 in 103 games at high Single-A in 2007 and carries a .305/.375/.406 career hitting line in 233 pro games. Tabata's a right fielder, so his long-term value depends largely on his ability to develop significant power down the road, but what he's accomplished as a teenager playing against far more experienced competition shows the ability to become a star.

There are some other intriguing prospects in the Yankees' system (Allan Horne, Daniel McCutchen, Dellin Betances, Humberto Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Tyler Clippard, George Kontos), but for the most part Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Cano, Cabrera, Jackson, and Tabata represent their best young talent and the players who a potential deal for Santana would seemingly be built around. As for which combination of those guys the Yankees would part with for Santana, that's much more difficult to say.

GROUP 1: Hughes, Chamberlain, Cano
GROUP 2: Cabrera, Jackson, Tabata, Kennedy
GROUP 3: Horne, McCutchen, Betances, Sanchez, Gardner, Clippard, Kontos

While certainly not a perfect way to examine the possibilities, the Yankees' young talent can probably be broken down into three groups. Group 1 represents players who're either already stars (Cano) or can potentially become superstars (Hughes, Chamberlain). Group 2 represents players who're either already above average (Cabrera) or can potentially become stars (Kennedy, Jackson, Tabata). Group 3 represents players who can potentially become above average.

While Twins fans would no doubt love to get Hughes, Chamberlain, and Cano as the haul for Santana, that's realistically never going to happen. At the same time, Yankees fans suggesting that the Twins might accept a handful of Group 3 players for Santana is equally far-fetched. A middle ground would seem to be one player from Group 1, one player from Group 2, and a couple players from Group 3. Of course, there are indications that the Yankees have no interest in trading Chamberlain or Cano.

That would leave Hughes as the lone member of Group 1, which is fine given that he's a perfect player to build a trade for Santana around. Start with Hughes, add Cabrera, Kennedy, Jackson, or Tabata, and then pick two from Horne, McCutchen, Betances, Sanchez, Gardner, and Clippard. It's only speculation, of course, but that would seem to be a palatable trade for both sides. From the Twins' point of view, it's not the no-brainer package that fans are surely hoping for, but it's plenty of talent.

General manager Bill Smith will have no shortage of appealing options for trading Santana and can put together dozens of different packages from each team. Because of that, I'm hopeful that he views the starting point in each potential trade as one truly elite young player who's at least 3-4 years away from free agency. It might be tempting to take quantity over quality with an eye towards re-stocking the farm system, but acquiring someone like Hughes (or Chamberlain, or Cano) should be the priority.

If that's not possible--there obviously aren't a whole lot of young players who fit that description and even fewer of them are available--then settling for anything less than a trio of Group 2-caliber players would seemingly be a mistake. After all, if Santana can't fetch at least one Group 1 player and a Group 2 player or three Group 2 players, then the Twins can simply keep him for 2008 and get a pair of draft picks when he leaves as a free agent.

Even if there's zero chance of keeping him in Minnesota long term, Santana's 2008 season has a ton of value to a Twins team that could easily be in playoff contention and there's a good chance that they'd end up with a pair of solid prospects from the draft picks. In other words, there's no reason to trade him without getting elite young talent in return. With that said, if a team like the Yankees is willing to build a package around Hughes while also including Cabrera, Kennedy, Tabata, or Jackson, it's time to listen.

According to the Los Angeles Times, the Angels have signed Torii Hunter to a five-year contract worth $90 million. The move comes as a shock for several reasons, not the least of which is that the Angels handed center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. a five-year, $50 million contract last offseason and also have Reggie Willits, who seemingly combined to make them pretty well set as the position for the rest of the decade.

Beyond that, the White Sox and Rangers were thought to be the front-runners for Hunter, who had given little indication that the Angels were even a major factor and said earlier this week that a decision wouldn't be made until after Thanksgiving. Instead, an announcement was made in the wee hours Thursday morning and Hunter apparently felt strongly enough about heading to California that he inked the deal shortly after dining with Rangers owner Tom Hicks.

The Rangers and White Sox had both been very forthcoming publicly about their interest in Hunter and a handful of other teams had been linked to him, so it's possible that he left some money on the table by signing so quickly. Whatever the case, Hunter ends up with two more seasons and an additional $45 million over what was reportedly the Twins' best offer to re-sign him, which is why the odds of his remaining in Minnesota have realistically been close to non-existent for months now.

Hunter remaining in the AL isn't ideal, but signing with the Angels beats joining the White Sox or even the Royals. The good news is that because the Angels finished with a winning record in 2007, the Twins will receive the 27th overall pick June's draft as compensation for losing Hunter. Had he signed with the White Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Nationals, Royals, Astros, Reds, or any other sub-.500 team, the Twins would have received a supplemental first rounder instead.

With Hunter now officially out of the picture, Bill Smith and the Twins can finally move on to finding his replacement in center field. Interestingly, Willits was one of 25 potential Hunter replacements who were examined in this space two weeks ago. I wrote at the time that Willits "seems like a prototypical Angels player and might be tough to pry away," but that could change with Hunter now making their outfield even more crowded. If you're curious, Matthews has a full no-trade clause through 2009.

Losing Hunter hurts, both because he was the team's most popular player for the past decade and because it's difficult to replace a good defensive center fielder who's hit .271/.324/.469. With that said, the writing has clearly been on the wall for quite a while and the way Hunter that handled his pending free agency during the past eight months makes it easier to see him go. He gave the Twins a lot of good years and I wish him luck with the Angels, but moving on might be best for everyone involved.

EARL JESSE BATTEY JR. | C | 1961-1967 | CAREER STATS
 
   G       PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+    WARP     WS
 853     3161     .278     .356     .409     109     38.3    114

Signed out of a Los Angeles high school by the White Sox in 1953, Earl Battey made his major-league debut in 1955 at the age of 20, collecting a pair of hits in a five-game stint with the team, but didn't see his first extended action in the majors until 1957. Battey then spent the next three seasons serving as Chicago's backup catcher, playing sparingly behind seven-time All-Star Sherm Lollar while batting just .209/.301/.377 in 413 total plate appearances.

The last of his three seasons backing up Lollar was 1959, when a 24-year-old Battey lost significant playing time to another 24-year-old catcher, rookie Johnny Romano. Romano batted .294/.407/.468 in 53 games to overtake Battey for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart during the White Sox's World Series run. Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Lollar was showing no signs of slowing down, turning in his second straight 20-homer, 80-RBI season while batting .265/.345/.451 in 140 games.

Lollar had been one of the game's best catchers for over a decade, so the White Sox decided to stick with him. That winter owner Bill Veeck traded Romano and 24-year-old first baseman Norm Cash to the Indians for a four-player package that included Minnie Minoso, who the White Sox had traded away just two years earlier. Then in April, about two weeks before Opening Day, the White Sox sent Battey, 22-year-old first baseman Don Mincher, and $150,000 to the Senators for Roy Sievers.

The trades paid immediate dividends, as both the 33-year-old Minoso and 34-year-old Sievers gave the White Sox two good seasons before leaving after 1961, but the moves were long-term disasters. In 1961 a 26-year-old Cash, now playing in Detroit, batted .361 with 41 homers and 132 RBIs. He went on to make five All-Star teams and smack 377 homers during his 17-year career. While not quite the hitter that Cash became, Mincher made two All-Star teams and hit .249/.348/.450 with 200 homers.

Romano, who went on to make a pair of All-Star teams while batting .255/.354/.443 during his 10-year career, immediately took over as the Indians' starting catcher, batting .272/.349/.475 in 1960 while the 35-year-old Lollar hit just .252/.326/.356 for the White Sox. Similarly, 1960 also saw Battey become an instant starter for the Senators, winning the AL Gold Glove while batting .270/.346/.406 with 15 homers during the team's final season in Washington.

The team moved to Minnesota and became the Twins in 1961, as Harmon Killebrew starred by hitting .288/.405/.606 with 46 homers and 122 RBIs. While Killebrew was putting together the first of what would be seven 40-homer seasons for the Twins, Battey was quickly establishing himself as one of baseball's premiere all-around catchers. Now 26 years old, Battey won his second straight Gold Glove and hit .302/.377/.470 with 17 homers while starting 127 games and catching over 1,100 innings.

Battey declined in 1962, batting .280/.348/.393, but won his third straight Gold Glove and made the first of four All-Star teams. He then bounced back to have the best season of his career in 1963, hitting .285/.369/.476 with 26 homers while catching a league-leading 1,237 innings in a league-high 142 starts and finishing seventh in the AL MVP voting. Yankees catcher Elston Howard won the MVP, but Battey produced similar numbers offensively while batting 55 more times in a dozen more games:

            G      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
Howard    135     531     .287     .342     .528     .870     28      85
Battey    147     586     .285     .369     .476     .845     26      84

Battey declined in 1964, hitting a still-solid .272/.348/.407, but bounced back in 1965 to finish 10th in the MVP voting. Minnesota teammates Zoilo Versalles and Tony Oliva finished one-two in the balloting and Twins starter Mudcat Grant placed sixth, with Battey hitting .297/.375/.409 as the team won 102 games and the AL crown before falling to the Dodgers in the World Series. He caught all seven games despite running neck-first into a railing chasing a foul ball in Game 3, but went 3-for-25 at the plate.

Just 30 years old, 1965 proved to be Battey's final great season as weight problems, injuries, and big workloads caught up with him. He batted .255/.337/.327 in 1966 before splitting time with Russ Nixon and Jerry Zimmerman in 1966, hitting .165 in his final season. After retiring he worked with inner-city kids in New York before going to college at the age of 45, graduating Summa Cum Laude. He then became a high-school teacher and baseball coach in Florida before dying from cancer in 2003.

Despite a relatively brief career that ended shortly after his 30th birthday and one of his best seasons coming in Washington for the Senators, Battey ranks as the best catcher in Twins history. His raw offensive numbers during seven seasons in Minnesota (.278/.356/.409 with 76 homers) look solid and the multiple Gold Gloves tell the story of his defensive reputation, but without a closer look at Battey's career it's easy to undersell his impact.

Battey's entire career was spent in one of the lowest-scoring eras in baseball history and he played a position that was both the most physically demanding and often home to no-hit defensive specialists. Battey was a stud on both sides of the ball, logging a huge number of innings while frequently catching one of the league's best pitching staffs, throwing out a high percentage of would-be base stealers, and putting up numbers offensively that were far more impressive than they initially appear.

For instance, when Battey hit .285/.369/.476 with 26 homers in 1963, the AL as a whole batted just .247/.312/.380. The AL batted .271/.338/.423 in 2007, which means that Battey's 1963 hitting line was the equivalent of batting .315/.400/.530 today and he would have cleared 30 homers with ease. As it stands, he ranked among the AL's top five catchers in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) in each of his six full seasons with the Twins:

1961              VORP     1962              VORP     1963              VORP
Elston Howard     51.8     Johnny Romano     34.1     Elston Howard     43.1
Johnny Romano     41.5     Elston Howard     25.3     EARL BATTEY       40.7
Johnny Blanchard  32.1     EARL BATTEY       16.9     John Orsino       27.0
EARL BATTEY       31.6     Jim Pagliaroni    13.5     Joe Azcue         17.4
Earl Averill      22.2     Ken Retzer        12.4     Yogi Berra        13.7

1964              VORP     1965              VORP     1966              VORP
Elston Howard     41.7     EARL BATTEY       29.4     Johnny Romano     16.6
Bill Freehan      37.0     Johnny Romano     23.5     Joe Azcue         10.5
Bob Tillman       25.3     Billy Bryan       18.8     Elston Howard      8.3
Johnny Romano     21.3     Charlie Lau       10.0     Paul Casanova      7.9
EARL BATTEY       19.2     John Orsino        9.3     EARL BATTEY        5.7

No other catcher cracked the top five in each of those six seasons and the only guys to make it five times were Howard and Battey's old competition from Chicago, Romano (see what I mean about those trades not working out especially well for the White Sox long term?). And VORP only accounts for hitting. As outstanding as Battey was offensively, it's his defense--and specifically his arm behind the plate--that actually may have been the strongest part of his game.

Battey was never especially mobile behind the plate to begin with and became perhaps baseball's slowest player once age, the rigors of five straight 1,000-inning seasons defensively, and excess weight caused by a goiter problem sapped him of whatever limited quickness he once had. Despite that, Battey never lost his amazing arm and remained the league's best-throwing catcher throughout his career. Battey allowed just 226 stolen bases in over 6,700 innings at catcher while in Minnesota.

Allowing one steal for every 30 innings during the run-heavy 1960s is amazing enough, but Battey also gunned down nearly 40 percent of would-be base thieves. Teams rarely tested him despite the huge stolen-base numbers being posted throughout baseball, yet Battey still managed a league-leading caught-stealing total three times during his career. He also led the AL in pickoffs four times, including a career-high 15 in 1962. That year Battey allowed 34 steals and picked off or threw out 42 runners.

TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:
 
OBP            .356        15th
Walks           328        16th
Hits            768        19th
AVG            .278        20th
Homers           76        20th
RBI             350        21st
Total Bases    1131        21st
OPS            .765        25th

For a complete list of other write-ups in the ongoing "Top 40 Minnesota Twins" series, click here.

Here's the full list of completed write-ups for my ongoing "Top 40 Minnesota Twins" series:

- #16 Corey Koskie
- #17 Earl Battey
- #18 Rick Aguilera
- #19 Dave Goltz
- #20 Camilo Pascual
- #21 Gary Gaetti
- #22 Zoilo Versalles
- #23 Cesar Tovar
- #24 Shane Mack
- #25 Brian Harper
- #26 Eddie Guardado
- #27 Larry Hisle
- #28 Tom Brunansky
- #29 Kevin Tapani
- #30 Jacque Jones
- #31 Butch Wynegar
- #32 Al Worthington
- #33 Greg Gagne
- #34 Matt Lawton
- #35 Steve Braun
- #36 Dave Boswell
- #37 Jimmie Hall
- #38 Eric Milton
- #39 Scott Erickson
- #40 Randy Bush

Friend of AG.com and Baseball Think Factory editor-in-chief Dan Szymborski began publishing his team-by-team ZiPS projections for 2008 just hours after the regular season concluded and posted the Twins' numbers last week. For those of you who're unfamiliar with ZiPS, it's Szymborski's own system and holds its own against various other sets of projections on an annual basis. As an added bonus, the information is available for free and gets posted publicly much earlier than most other projections.

Plus, Szymborski can be convinced to add projections for players who he'd skipped initially, which is what happened when I bugged him for numbers on guys like Jeff Manship, Ryan Mullins, and Jay Sawatski. The end result is an accurate, early projection that includes nearly every player in the organization who could conceivably see big-league playing time in 2008, which is the sort of thing that can hold my mid-November interest until what figures to be a busy offseason gets going.

I looked at the good news earlier this week, going through the pitching projections for next season, so today I'll cover the bad news that is the team's lack of impact bats. ZiPS projects the 2008 Twins to be similar to the 2007 version, with a strong pitching staff and a lineup that struggles mightily to score runs. In fact, with several young pitchers expected to emerge and Torii Hunter leaving as a free agent, ZiPS' outlook for the Twins in 2008 is even more extreme.

Led by Joe Nathan, Johan Santana, and Francisco Liriano, ZiPS projects 10 different Twins pitchers to be better than the MLB average in 2008, but ignoring Hunter only four Twins hitters are projected to be above average in 2008. Toss in the fact that none of those four hitters clears the "average" bar by anything close to the same distance that Nathan, Santana, and Liriano do and it's easy to see why things are looking extremely ugly offensively.

Of course, comparing all hitters to the same overall MLB average is misleading. For instance, a first baseman can be an above-average hitter compared to all of MLB while being a below-average hitter at the position. Meanwhile, a catcher can be well below the MLB average while being well above average for the position. With that in mind, I've grouped Twins hitters into catchers, infielders, and outfielders while including the MLB average for each position to make putting numbers into context easier.

CATCHERS             AVG      OBP      SLG      GPA
Joe Mauer           .315     .404     .458     .296
Mike Redmond        .299     .342     .362     .244
AVERAGE C           .256     .317     .395     .241
Jose Morales        .257     .311     .347     .227
Chris Heintz        .261     .303     .337     .221

In terms of good news within the bad news, this is it. Joe Mauer projects to be about 23 percent above average offensively for a catcher, while Mike Redmond also checks in at slightly above par. Redmond would dip below average if given a higher percentage of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching, which is why he's in a perfect spot backing up a left-handed hitter like Mauer who's capable of being an asset at designated hitter on days when he's not catching.

ZiPS sees Jose Morales and Chris Heintz posting ugly numbers, but even those projections would make them somewhat serviceable backups offensively given that catcher is by far the worst-hitting position (which is something that I've discussed in this space many times in relation to Mauer's value). With Mauer and Redmond in the majors and Morales waiting at Triple-A, the Twins have perhaps the best catching setup of any team in baseball and the position is arguably the team's biggest strength.

INFIELDERS           AVG      OBP      SLG      GPA
Justin Morneau      .283     .355     .527     .292
AVERAGE 1B          .275     .354     .462     .275
AVERAGE 3B          .271     .339     .440     .263
AVERAGE 2B          .273     .333     .406     .251
Ken Harvey          .274     .328     .406     .249
Jason Bartlett      .275     .341     .367     .246
AVERAGE SS          .271     .326     .399     .246
Brock Peterson      .253     .318     .404     .244
Chris Basak         .242     .317     .393     .241
Erik Lis            .249     .294     .399     .232
Garrett Jones       .235     .289     .401     .230
Brian Buscher       .251     .309     .361     .229
Matt Tolbert        .255     .306     .363     .228
Matt Macri          .231     .302     .359     .226
Tommy Watkins       .246     .310     .344     .226
Alexi Casilla       .260     .311     .319     .220
Nick Punto          .235     .311     .306     .216
Alejandro Machado   .245     .307     .304     .214
Trevor Plouffe      .240     .290     .328     .213
Matt Moses          .214     .263     .305     .195

Mauer and Justin Morneau are essentially projected to be equal offensively in 2008, but that would give Morneau just a six-percent edge over the average first baseman compared to Mauer being 23 percent above average for a catcher. Of course, six percent above average for a first baseman is still plenty good and the infield also has Jason Bartlett, who's projected to be almost exactly average offensively for a shortstop. Unfortunately, it gets pretty ugly after that.

No second baseman or third baseman in the entire organization is projected to be average offensively for their position. In fact, only minor-league veteran Chris Basak--a potential utility man who was claimed off waivers near the end of the season--even falls into the category of "slightly below average." For 2008 at least, ZiPS doesn't think much of Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert, Matt Macri, Tommy Watkins, Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, or Alejandro Machado, and for the most part it's tough to disagree.

Of that group, Buscher has the best chance to significantly out-hit his 2008 projection, because ZiPS views his out-of-nowhere breakout season along with the rest of his sub par minor-league career. Projection systems are supposed to work that way--taking multi-year track records into account rather than focusing on one season--but there's a chance that Buscher has legitimately turned a corner in his development.

Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2007, Buscher had the best offensive season of anyone in the Twins' minor-league system, posting a context-adjusted hitting line of .316/.388/.540 between Double-A and Triple-A. That performance was way out of line with the rest of his pro career, so either it was a fluke or he's a better long-term bet than ZiPS projects. Time will obviously tell (assuming that the Twins actually give him a chance to play), but I'd take the over on his ZiPS projection.

In the past I've tried to dispel the notion that Garrett Jones is a legitimate prospect and his horrendous ZiPS projection certainly agrees with me, yet he'll no doubt see far more playing time than he deserves in 2008. ZiPS projects Brock Peterson to be about six percent better than Jones in 2008--the same edge that Morneau has over the average first baseman--despite the fact that Peterson is three years younger and has yet to play above Double-A.

Peterson's .290/.383/.505 context-adjusted hitting line as a 23-year-old at Double-A ranked second to only Buscher among the organization's minor-league hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2007. As you can see by the above ZiPS projections the Twins are severely lacking in good-hitting first basemen and designated hitters, so Peterson is someone to watch as a long-term DH option (or potential replacement for Morneau, I suppose). On an unrelated note: Matt Moses is horrible.

OUTFIELDERS          AVG      OBP      SLG      GPA
Torii Hunter        .276     .339     .462     .268
AVERAGE LF          .274     .345     .448     .267
AVERAGE RF          .273     .342     .450     .266
Michael Cuddyer     .269     .352     .427     .265
Jason Kubel         .268     .332     .436     .258
AVERAGE CF          .268     .332     .418     .254
Rashad Eldridge     .249     .315     .381     .237
Jason Tyner         .280     .330     .325     .230
Craig Monroe        .236     .286     .402     .229
Darnell McDonald    .256     .310     .357     .229
Rondell White       .250     .291     .370     .223
Denard Span         .257     .305     .326     .219

I've lumped all outfielders together, but grouping them into "corner outfielders" and "center fielders" might be more accurate given the gap between the positions' MLB-wide production. All of which is what makes Hunter such a valuable player. He's not only above average offensively for a center fielder, he'd also be above average for a left fielder or right fielder. Like Morneau compared to first basemen, ZiPS projects Hunter to be about six percent better than the average center fielder offensively in 2008.

That's going to be nearly impossible to replace unless the Twins swing a major trade, but the good news is that ZiPS sees Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel essentially being average offensively for corner outfielders despite relatively conservative projections. Cuddyer is projected for a .426 slugging percentage that's slightly below his .433 mark in 2007, but he's slugged .450 for his career. Kubel's projection suffers because ZiPS doesn't know why he missed all of 2005 and then struggled in 2006.

In other words, ZiPS just assumes that Kubel didn't play in 2005 and played horribly in 2006 because he wasn't very good in those years, but in reality a severe knee injury was to blame. That's obviously not a good thing and the missed development time is damaging, but Kubel finally appears to be healthy and batted .303/.379/.511 after the All-Star break. Given that he hit .273/.335/.450 as a 25-year-old who was healthy for the first time since 2004, I'd bet on Kubel topping his .268/.332/.436 projection.

Like the infield with Morneau and Bartlett, once you get past Cuddyer and Kubel in the outfield it gets ugly. ZiPS doesn't see the newly acquired Craig Monroe bouncing back much from a dismal season, which is something that I warned about while discussing him at great length yesterday in this space. ZiPS sees Jason Tyner essentially being Jason Tyner and rightfully doesn't think that Denard Span is anywhere close to a legitimate option to replace Hunter in center field.

As things stand right now, the big picture for the Twins offensively isn't very good. They figure to get significantly above-average production from catcher, above average production from first base, and at least average production from shortstop, left field, and right field. Normally that would be the makings of a solid lineup, but unfortunately they currently have no one who's projected to be anywhere near average for the gaping holes at second base, third base, center field, and designated hitter.