AaronGleeman.com
Monday, December 24, 2007

Happy Festivus


Between the holidays and typical lack of Twins-related news this time of year, plus some on-deadline writing projects, blogging may be light and somewhat sporadic until 2008.



Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


Friday, December 21, 2007

Link-O-Rama

  • My first in-studio radio appearance must not have been a total disaster, because I'll be back on the KFAN airwaves tonight to talk Twins for an hour with Doogie Wolfson. I'm not sure if we'll be fielding phone calls--we planned to last time, but instead ended up just babbling for the entire time--but you can listen via radio or the station's website beginning at 9:00 p.m. Like last time, I'll also try to get some audio clips of the show to post here next week so that everyone can rip my appearance apart.


  • I was so intrigued after seeing a preview of I Am Legend last month that I immediately bought the novel that the film is based on. The book was fantastic and I read it in one sitting, which made me even more excited to see the movie. Then I was lucky enough to work my way into a sneak preview last Thursday night and getting to see the movie before everyone else while sitting in a jam-packed theater made my expectations rise even further. All of which makes reviewing the movie sort of difficult.

    On its own, the movie was very good. It moved quickly, had an interesting plot, was visually appealing, and revolves around a strong performance from Will Smith. However, I left the theater feeling extremely disappointed because the movie strayed so far from the novel in several major ways and the end result was a significantly inferior version. They took an exceptional book that told a unique, detailed story and essentially turned it into something that resembled a fairly typical action movie.

    I don't necessarily blame the movie-makers for straying from the novel, because there are several key aspects of the book that perhaps wouldn't have played well with the average movie-goer. With that said, it's an incredible shame that Richard Matheson's masterpiece became merely the launching point for something that ended up being only marginally recognizable. The movie was good, but it could have been something special if it had followed the book more closely. Grade: B-plus.


  • Britney Spears' 16-year-old sister getting knocked up made big headlines this week, but news that Jessica Alba is also pregnant hits this blog far harder. Alba is a former Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com who has long remained a candidate to reclaim the title, but can probably now be crossed off the list for good. It was a nice run and this is obviously a very sad day in OFGoAG.com history.


  • In other OFGoAG.com news, Jenna Fischer has confused me by looking fantastic one day and then looking ... well, let's just say less than fantastic the next day. It's a clear case of two-face syndrome and if Fischer is ever named OFGoAG.com she may be limited to wearing her crown while sitting in the back booth at Monk's Cafe.

    UPDATE: Over at her blog, Fischer provides plenty of reason to see the new movie that she co-stars in with John C. Reilly, Walk Hard:
    I should warn you ... this movie is rated R and it is a hard R. It is very raunchy and sexy and the humor is hard core. ... I don't get naked in the film. I should probably say that. But I do showcase the ladies quite a bit. I had to be sewn into most of my costumes to make sure they were as tight as possible. My wardrobe assistant's main job was making sure my boobs didn't fall out. It was hilarious. I would see her across the room starring at my chest all day.
    I Am Legend was a letdown compared to the novel and Walk Hard will probably be disappointing compared to that blog entry.


  • Even all-time greats can only hold off the wall for so long.


  • ESPN's new 60 Minutes-style show, E:60, recently had an interesting segment on internet cult hero and former bare-knuckle street-fighter Kimbo Slice (whom I've written about several times in the past):


    The show's forced newsroom intro is very cheesy and the piece doesn't actually get into all that much depth, but Slice is such an intriguing figure that it's definitely worth watching anyway.


  • In examining 25 potential replacements for Torii Hunter last month, I suggested Jeff DaVanon as a low-cost, stop-gap option. He's no longer a possibility, because DaVanon signed a minor-league deal with the Padres earlier this week and will likely back up newly acquired Jim Edmonds in San Diego. Of the 10 free agents included on my list of 25 possible Hunter replacements, only Mike Cameron, Kenny Lofton, Corey Patterson, Darin Erstad, and Brad Wilkerson remain unsigned.

    At this point it's widely assumed that the Twins' new center fielder will arrive via a Johan Santana trade, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Melky Cabrera named most often in rumors. However, if Santana is retained or trading him doesn't bring back a center fielder, then Lofton remains a nice low-risk option. He's 41 years old, but batted .296/.367/.414 in 2007 and .308/.371/.412 over the past three years, would likely agree to a modest one-year deal, and could slide nicely into the vacant leadoff spot.


  • If you're like me and couldn't live without Baseball-Reference.com, then you'll also love the revamped Pro-Football-Reference.com and the interesting story behind it.


  • Erin Andrews of ESPN has seen her popularity rise to insane levels of late and was recently named America's Sexiest Sportscaster by Playboy, but I may have spotted a potential challenger to her throne while watching NFL games last weekend. Her name is Charissa Thompson, she seemed relatively competent while doing sideline reporting for FOX, and she looks like this. Andrews has always struck me as somewhat overrated, so I'm officially on the Thompson bandwagon. Feel free to join me.


  • One of my favorite journalism-school professors used to advise his class that we shouldn't get into the writing business for the money, because there isn't any. That's good advice and I remembered it often back in 2002 while pumping out content nearly every day for several years on this blog and other websites without making a dime. At no point was money a factor in any way, which is how I knew that writing was truly for me. On the other hand, there is some money in the writing business.

    I'm 24 years old and haven't been a full-time writer for long, but my salary is more than I ever expected to make at any point in life. That's perhaps due more to low expectations than big money, so a better example is Rick Reilly. He who wrote the back-page column in Sports Illustrated for years, but recently left the magazine for what's reportedly a $17 million contract with ESPN. If everyone knew that you could make $17 million from writing, those journalism-school classes would have a lot fewer empty seats.


  • Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is Wyclef Jean, Niia Bertino, and Jerry Wonda doing an acoustic version of "Sweetest Girl":




  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Thursday, December 20, 2007

    Twins Notes: Swings, Silva, and "Something"

  • In an ESPN.com article about baseball's best and worst lineups, friend of AG.com Jerry Crasnick passed along this interesting Delmon Young stat:
    Young has lot of potential, but he might want to take a pitch once in a while. According to Stats Inc., Young took 1,484 swings last year in Tampa Bay. The only player in the last 20 years who swung at more pitches was Alfonso Soriano, who took 1,519 hacks for the 2002 Yankees.
    My lengthy day-after analysis of last month's six-player swap with the Rays questioned Young's horrible plate discipline and noted that "he's hacked at everything while showing only moderate power since advancing past Double-A in mid-2005." My focus was primarily on his lousy walk rates and sub par strikeout-to-walk ratios, but the fact that he literally hacked at a historic number of pitches as a rookie may illustrate the point even better.

    At just 22 years old Young obviously still has plenty of time to develop some selectivity at the plate, but being rushed through the minors relatively quickly tends to hurt that aspect of a hitter's game and the Twins aren't exactly known for preaching plate discipline. For Young to become a great hitter he'll have to essentially double his walk rate at some point, along with also showing that his power potential has been undersold by the mediocre pop that he's displayed over the past two seasons.


  • After Carlos Silva made his final start for the Twins back in early October, Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune suggested that he could be in line for a three-year, $25 million contract as a free agent. Given the dearth of pitching talent available on the free-agent market this offseason those figures seemed low to me in terms of both years and money, so my prediction at the time was that "Silva's next contract is likely to be worth closer to $40 million than $20 million."

    It turns out that Christensen's figures were off and even my prediction sold the market for Silva short, because he's reportedly on the verge of signing a four-year, $44 million contract with the Mariners. Silva's unlikely to be worth that and there was no reason for the Twins to compete for his services at that price given their organization-wide pitching depth and modest payroll. Still, it's a shame that Terry Ryan's unwillingness to trade Silva in July leaves the Twins with nothing to show for a $44 million exit.


  • I've complained plenty about the way that Ron Gardenhire used Jason Tyner by ignoring his awful numbers against southpaws to frequently start him against left-handed pitching and misguidedly deploying one of the least-powerful hitters of all time as a corner outfielder and designated hitter. With that said, it was surprising to see the Twins cut Tyner loose last week rather than pay what figured to be around $1 million via arbitration, if only because of the current hole in center field.

    As a corner outfielder or designated hitter Tyner's decent defensive ability is wasted and his weak bat is a liability. However, with no clear replacement for Torii Hunter emerging yet Tyner could have been teamed with a right-handed hitter to form a cheap, mildly productive platoon in center field given his .311/.347/.377 line against right-handers during three seasons in Minnesota. Perhaps Bill Smith simply realized that Gardenhire was unlikely to actually platoon Tyner and decided not to chance it.


  • Tyner was let go, but the Twins tendered a contract to Juan Rincon for 2008, meaning that they'll either take him to arbitration or agree to a pre-arbitration deal. Actually, a third option is trading Rincon, which is hopefully the Twins' plan given that he was originally included in the six-player trade with Tampa Bay before the Rays became concerned about the state of his elbow. As discussed in this space previously, Rincon's performance has steadily declined since his breakout 2004 season:
    YEAR      SO%     K/BB     OAVG     xFIP
    2004 32.4 3.4 .181 3.15
    2005 26.3 3.1 .224 3.32
    2006 20.6 3.0 .270 3.73
    2007 18.1 2.0 .273 4.67
    Rincon has seen his strikeout rate (SO%), strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), opponent's batting average (OAVG), and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) each decline in three straight seasons. It's possible that his elbow problems may be smoothed out and he's not yet 29 years old, so he's not a completely lost cause. Still, the patterns aren't encouraging and Rincon figures to make at least $3 million via arbitration, so the Twins would be best off cashing him in for some value while they still can.


  • While Rondell White was hitting .229/.266/.354 during two seasons in Minnesota the local media constantly told Twins fans that he was a wonderful person and a clubhouse favorite. That may still be true, but now we also know that White spent thousands of dollars on steroids, including one purchase that took place shortly before signing with the Twins. In fact, copies of seven checks that White wrote to steroid supplier Kirk Radomski were included in last week's Mitchell Report.

    According to the report: "Radomski recalled teaching White a lot about steroids ... walking him through HGH injections for two hours on the phone one night." Also of note is that rather than breaking his cover by putting "steroids" in the memo portion of one $2,400 check to Radomski from December of 2005, White instead stealthily wrote "bought something." Seriously. My interest in the whole steroids situation is minimal, but details like that made it worth slogging through the entire 409-page report.


  • Sidney Ponson had a 6.93 ERA in seven starts with the Twins before they cut him loose in mid-May, failed to latch on with another team to finish the season, hasn't posted an ERA below 5.00 since 2003, and has a career ERA of 4.94 in 1,566 big-league innings. On the other hand, he's over 30 years old and was briefly a good pitcher, so naturally the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Phillies are considering signing him to a minor-league contract as they "continue to search for pitching."


  • Giants outfielders Dave Roberts, Rajai Davis, and Fred Lewis were among 25 options included in last month's examination of potential replacements for Hunter. The availability of all three players has seemingly increased now that the Giants signed center fielder Aaron Rowand to a five-year, $60 million contract. The San Francisco Chronicle notes that Davis and Lewis are "destined for backup roles if they aren't traded" and suggests that "the Giants also could seek a taker for Roberts."


  • As they've done several times in the past, Seth Stohs recently interviewed Pat Neshek, who once again proved to be an interesting subject. Neshek also recently sent Will Young several wedding gifts, including a hand-written note saying that he likes to check out Will's blog to see how he does in terms of Win Probability Added after each game. Being a native Minnesotan with a wacky delivery and a 2.68 career ERA is more enough to make him a fan favorite, but Neshek is also a pretty special person.


  • Apparently my first in-studio radio appearance must not have been a total disaster, because I'll be back on the KFAN airwaves Friday night to talk Twins for an hour or so with Doogie Wolfson. I'm not sure if we'll be fielding phone calls--we planned to last time, but instead ended up just babbling for the entire time--but you can listen to the show (via radio or the station's website) beginning at 9:00 p.m.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Monday, December 17, 2007

    Twins Sign Lamb

    For years the Twins got very good production at third base both offensively and defensively from Corey Koskie, but in the three seasons since Koskie left for Toronto as a free agent the position has been a major weakness. A total of 10 players have started for the Twins at third base since Koskie's departure and nearly all of them struggled offensively, defensively, or both. Here's a list of the motley crew that has replaced Koskie, along with how many starts each player made at third base from 2005-2007:
                        GS
    Nick Punto 189
    Michael Cuddyer 92
    Luis Rodriguez 64
    Tony Batista 50
    Terry Tiffee 26
    Brian Buscher 24
    Juan Castro 13
    Jeff Cirillo 12
    Glenn Williams 9
    Tommy Watkins 8
    That ugly list of glorified utility men (Nick Punto, Juan Castro, Luis Rodriguez), washed-up veterans (Tony Batista, Jeff Cirillo), career-long minor leaguers (Tommy Watkins, Glenn Williams, Terry Tiffee), and guys who're now manning less-demanding positions (Michael Cuddyer) is a very long fall from Koskie providing outstanding defense while hitting .280/.373/.463. Here's a look at the pathetic year-to-year production that the Twins have gotten from third base post-Koskie:
    YEAR      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
    2005 .256 .318 .396 .712 13 59
    2006 .266 .329 .374 .703 8 64
    2007 .236 .308 .323 .631 6 46

    TOTAL .253 .318 .364 .682 27 169
    Over the past three years Twins third basemen have combined to hit .253/.318/.364 while the average MLB third baseman batted .275/.345/.445, putting them 13 percent below par. During that three-year span Twins third basemen totaled 27 homers and 165 RBIs while the other 29 teams averaged 64 homers and 265 RBIs from the position. While other teams were getting an .800 OPS, 20 homers, and 90 RBIs from third base each year, the Twins got a .680 OPS, nine homers, and 55 RBIs.

    Tired of getting little production from a strong offensive position, the Twins signed Mike Lamb away from the Astros for two years and $6.6 million, with a team option for 2010. A part-time player for most of his career, the 32-year-old Lamb was no doubt drawn to the Twins because he'll almost surely enter the season as the team's starting third baseman. "The reality is I've been a bench player for five or six years now," Lamb said. "I realize the Twins are taking a chance on me and I definitely appreciate it."
    MIKE LAMB 2004-2007

    YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoP IsoD
    2004 312 .288 .356 .511 .867 .223 .068
    2005 349 .236 .284 .419 .703 .183 .048
    2006 421 .307 .361 .475 .836 .168 .054
    2007 353 .289 .366 .453 .819 .164 .077
    The Twins clearly targeted Lamb because of his bat. He's hit .281/.339/.427 in 2,676 career trips to the plate, including a .281/.342/.464 hitting line during four seasons in Houston that looks nearly identical to the aforementioned MLB average at third base (.275/.345/.445) over the past three seasons. Lamb's numbers away from Houston's hitter-friendly home ballpark have been somewhat underwhelming, but he's capable of being an average offensive third baseman. That's the good news.

    The bad news is that Lamb's defense is another story. While the Twins are looking at Lamb as their everyday third baseman, several other teams were reportedly interested in signing him as either a first baseman or designated hitter. And with good reason, because Lamb's numbers at third base have been nearly as ugly as Adam Everett's numbers at shortstop are impressive. While Everett is among the MLB leaders in Zone Rating and Revised Zone Rating every year, the opposite is true for Lamb.

    Lamb's .693 Zone Rating ranked worse than every regular third baseman in baseball this season and his .730 career mark would have ranked better than only Ryan Braun (.697), Miguel Cabrera (.714), and Garrett Atkins (.722). Revised Zone Rating tells a similar story, with Lamb's .619 mark this year ranking ahead of only Braun (.564), Edwin Encarnacion (.600), Jose Bautista (.612), and Atkins (.613) among regular third basemen. He's simply not a good defender at the hot corner.

    In Everett the Twins got a replacement-level offensive player whose phenomenal defense makes him a slightly above average all-around shortstop. In Lamb the Twins get an above average offensive player whose horrible defense makes him a slightly below average all-around third baseman. That may not sound especially impressive, but "slightly below average all-around third baseman" represents a big improvement over what the Twins have gotten from the position post-Koskie.

    Prorating their combined numbers from the past four years to 600 plate appearances (about one full season's worth), Punto has created about 55 runs and Lamb has created about 85 runs. In other words, if they each perform like they did from 2004-2007 then Lamb figures to be worth 30 runs more than Punto offensively over the course of a full season. If instead they each perform like they did in 2007 alone, then the gap is more like 45 runs in Lamb's favor.

    There's no doubt that Punto is a superior defender at third base, but his sterling defensive reputation doesn't even come close to matching his actual numbers, which are merely decent. However, even if Lamb is 10 runs below average defensively (which would be a lot) and Punto is 10 runs above average defensively (which would also be a lot), that still leaves a gap of between 10-25 runs in Lamb's favor. And that's probably a stretch. My guess is that Lamb's true all-around edge is about 20-25 runs.

    Terry Ryan was good at acquiring talent and providing the Twins with star-caliber players, but often struggled to build a strong roster around those stars when the organization's homegrown talent wasn't ready to fill holes. As Ryan's replacement Bill Smith is faced with the task of improving a sub par lineup without the benefit of many MLB-ready hitting prospects, but he's smartly chosen to go after mid-level free agents rather than follow in Ryan's footsteps with washed-up veterans off the scrap heap.

    The Twins will never be big players in free agency and overpaid for a mediocre hitter in Craig Monroe, but it's nice to see the team identify and pursue affordable players who actually have a chance to contribute positively. By signing guys like Monroe, Everett, and Lamb the Twins are shopping on a budget, but that still beats venturing into the clearance section to find the latest broken-down versions of Castro, Batista, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Ruben Sierra.

    Guys like Everett and Lamb push a team forward rather than hold a team back and during his final few seasons at the helm Ryan didn't fill the Twins' roster with nearly enough forward-pushing players while consistently dragging them down with dead weight. Smith is giving Ron Gardenhire capable options to build his lineup with, although it obviously remains to be seen if Gardenhire makes good use of the tools that he's given.

    The infield now appears to be set, with Justin Morneau at first base, Brendan Harris at second base, Everett at shortstop, and Lamb at third base. That would seemingly keep Punto on the bench where he belongs, but platooning Lamb and Harris at third base or simply benching Lamb or Harris altogether can't be ruled out when it comes to ways for Gardenhire to get Punto playing time. Of course, that's an entirely different issue. For now, Smith has given Gardenhire some quality pieces to work with.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Friday, December 14, 2007

    Twins Sign Everett

    Having created an opening at shortstop by including Jason Bartlett in last month's trade with the Devil Rays, the Twins filled the hole yesterday by signing Adam Everett to a one-year deal worth $2.8 million plus incentives. Everett was non-tendered by the Astros following their trade for Miguel Tejada and at first glance it's tempting to lump him in with good-glove, no-hit middle infielders like Nick Punto and Juan Castro, but that's misleading because Everett is more like the good-glove, no-hit middle infielder.

    Numbers often disagree with the sterling defensive reputations that guys like Punto and Castro have been tagged with, but in Everett's case his reputation is strong and his numbers are even stronger. In fact, Everett's numbers--the important ones, not misleading/near-useless stats like fielding percentage and Range Factor--show him as either the best or second-best defensive shortstop in all of baseball since he became an everyday player in 2003.

    Zone Rating measures the rate at which a player turns a ball hit into his defensive zone into an out, which is essentially the goal of playing defense and combines the ability to get to a ball with the ability to actually convert it into an out. For instance, if 100 balls are hit in a shortstop's zone and he converts 85 of them into an out, then his Zone Rating is .850. Here's how Everett has fared in Zone Rating on a year-to-year basis among all MLB shortstops:
    2007                 ZR     2006                 ZR     2005                  ZR
    Omar Vizquel .897 ADAM EVERETT .905 Jack Wilson .885
    ADAM EVERETT .872 Juan Uribe .868 Neifi Perez .884
    Troy Tulowitzki .866 Omar Vizquel .864 ADAM EVERETT .873
    Jose Reyes .863 Jose Reyes .858 Omar Vizquel .872
    Khalil Greene .855 David Eckstein .857 Khalil Greene .860

    2004 ZR 2003 ZR
    ADAM EVERETT .888 David Eckstein .896
    Cesar Izturis .881 Jose Valentin .893
    Jose Valentin .878 Edgar Renteria .871
    Bobby Crosby .870 Alex Gonzalez .868
    Alex Gonzalez .862 ADAM EVERETT .862
    Everett's Zone Rating led all of baseball in both 2006 and 2004, finished second to 11-time Gold Glove winner Omar Vizquel in 2007, and also ranked among MLB's top five in both 2005 and 2003. No other shortstop ranked among the top five in each of the past five seasons and only Vizquel even has an argument for being as good as Everett overall. Looking at career Zone Ratings, Everett's fantastic .880 mark safely tops Vizquel's .862 and Bartlett's .854 while dwarfing Castro's .832.

    Revised Zone Rating is slightly different in that it looks at the rate at which a player turns a ball hit into his defensive zone into an out while ignoring plays made on balls not in a player's zone. In other words, if a shortstop jogs into foul territory to handle a pop up, that play is not included in his Revised Zone Rating (although it does get added to his "Out Of Zone" play count). The Hardball Times has Revised Zone Ratings dating back to 2004 and here's how Everett fares:
    2007                RZR     2006                RZR     2005                RZR
    Omar Vizquel .886 ADAM EVERETT .891 Neifi Perez .864
    ADAM EVERETT .871 Omar Vizquel .869 Jack Wilson .861
    Jose Reyes .871 Jason Bartlett .863 ADAM EVERETT .860
    Alex Gonzalez .862 Jose Reyes .858 Omar Vizquel .856
    Troy Tulowitzki .861 Alex Gonzalez .855 Alex Gonzalez .852

    2004 RZR
    ADAM EVERETT .877
    Cesar Izturis .862
    Jose Valentin .854
    Bobby Crosby .852
    Jack Wilson .851
    Some of the names surrounding him shift around, but Everett's place remains the same. His Revised Zone Rating led MLB in both 2006 and 2004, ranked second to Vizquel in 2007, and ranked third behind Neifi Perez and Jack Wilson in 2005. Beginning in 2004, Everett has posted yearly Revised Zone Ratings of .877, .860, .891, and .871. To put those numbers in some Twins-related context, consider that Bartlett's career RZR is .835 and Castro had an .833 RZR in Minnesota.

    Along with Everett's incredibly strong showing in both Zone Rating and Revised Zone Rating, David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range rated him as MLB's best everyday shortstop in both 2005 and 2006. Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating shows Everett as not only the best defensive shortstop in baseball over the past five years, but by far the best defensive player at any position on the diamond over that span, period.

    Baseball Info Solutions "charted every ball hit in the majors and assigned it a percentage of difficulty based on direction, distance, speed, and the route the ball took" as part of the unique analysis found in The Fielding Bible, concluding that Everett was 119 plays better than an average shortstop between 2003-2006. In an essay featured in the same book, Bill James specifically chose Everett as the means to show how overrated Derek Jeter is defensively.

    Even the most advanced defensive metrics often disagree on the best defenders at each position and the nature of defensive stats leads to quite a bit of year-to-year variation, but in Everett's case there's near-complete agreement across the board and plenty of yearly consistency. He's simply an absolutely phenomenal defensive shortstop and, while he's been snubbed by the often clueless Gold Glove voters, has a legitimate argument for being one of the elite defensive players of this era.

    Of course, like many of the truly great defensive players in baseball history Everett is also a horrible hitter. Despite calling a hitter-friendly ballpark home, playing in a weaker league, and getting 10 percent of his career walks thanks to batting in front of the pitcher, Everett has hit just .248/.299/.357 in 2,374 plate appearances. That still makes him a much better hitter than Castro (.231/.269/.336), but Everett is essentially equal to Punto (.248/.314/.321) offensively.

    The question is whether Everett's second-to-none defense at shortstop can make up for his awful hitting. During his career Everett has essentially been the definition of a replacement-level shortstop offensively, producing a combined Value Over Replacement Player of 2.4 in 2,374 trips to the plate. Broken down to every 600 plate appearances (approximately one full season's worth of playing time), Everett has been about 0.6 runs better than a replacement-level shortstop offensively.

    Jeter led all AL shortstops in VORP this season with 53.3, followed by Carlos Guillen (45.0), Michael Young (38.1), Miguel Tejada (31.8), and Orlando Cabrera (31.7) rounding out the top five. Bartlett was ninth in the league at 14.7. In other words, Everett figures to be about 30 runs worse than a good-hitting shortstop and about 15 runs worse than a decent-hitting shortstop. Baseball Prospectus agrees with that assessment, showing Everett as 18.7 runs below average per 600 plate appearances.

    Given that, for Everett to be an "average" all-around shortstop he has to be 15-20 runs above average with his glove. That may seem like a huge amount of runs at first glance, but Everett's defensive numbers suggest that it's well within reach. According to Zone Rating and Revised Zone Rating, he's been approximately 25 runs above average defensively per full season. Ultimate Zone Rating shows him as about 30 runs better than average per season.

    If Everett simply hits his usual .250/.300/.350 at the plate and provides his usual outstanding defense in the field, he'll be a slightly above average all-around shortstop who's a much better choice than in-house options Punto and Brendan Harris. Another viable option would have been signing free agent David Eckstein, but he's really just a better-hitting, worse-fielding version of "slightly above average all-around shortstop" and received $4.5 million from the Blue Jays earlier this week.

    Hitting is much easier to simplistically evaluate than defense, so on the surface the fact that both Harris and Eckstein are 15-20 runs better than Everett offensively makes it seem like they're clearly better all-around players despite being sub par defenders. And most of the time that'd be correct, because as the Twins learned the hard way with Castro, the problem with many good-glove, no-hit middle infielders is that their defense isn't exceptional enough to make up for their putrid offense.

    However, if there's one player in all of baseball whose glove can balance out the damage done by a .650 OPS it's Everett. He's basically the player that the Twins misguidedly thought they had in Castro, providing replacement-level offense and legitimately phenomenal defense (as opposed to Castro's sub-replacement level offense and illegitimately phenomenal defense). Everett might be 15-20 runs worse than Harris and Eckstein offensively, but he makes up for that and then some defensively.

    Everett turns 31 years old in February and missed most of 2007 with a fractured fibula suffered while ranging into left field chasing a fly ball, so there's a chance that his days of providing dominant defense are in the rear-view mirror. However, he was fantastic prior to suffering the injury and even a slight drop-off in his glovework would leave the Twins with a valuable player at a reasonable cost. Their value comes in different packages, but the Twins have more or less replaced Bartlett with an equal player.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Thursday, December 13, 2007

    Twins Sign Monroe

    He's only been on the job for about two months, but general manager Bill Smith has already proven to be very different than predecessor Terry Ryan in several important ways. Last month's huge swap that sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Devil Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie proved that Smith is significantly more willing to take risks than Ryan, who shied away from such franchise-altering moves during the final days of his tenure.

    Beyond that, from the Garza-for-Young deal and letting Torii Hunter walk via free agency to shopping Johan Santana and cutting Lew Ford and Jason Tyner loose, Smith has also shown that he's far less willing to let loyalty guide his decision-making. I'm not especially fond of the six-player swap with the Devil Rays and for all his faults Tyner was worth keeping around, but generally speaking more risks and less loyalty are things that will serve Smith well compared to Ryan's final couple years at the helm.

    Unfortunately, Smith showed yesterday that he's still very much like Ryan when it comes to overvaluing veteran mediocrity, signing Craig Monroe to a one-year deal worth $3.82 million plus incentives. The Twins acquired Monroe's rights from the Cubs last month for a conditional player to be named later, hoping that he'd accept a pay cut from his 2007 salary while realizing that they could simply non-tender him without owing anything if he balked.

    The Twins got what they wanted, as Monroe agreed to slice his 2007 salary by 20 percent, which is the maximum allowed for an arbitration-eligible player. However, getting what they wanted also involves paying $3.82 million for a 31-year-old corner outfielder who was never all that good to begin with, has declined in three straight seasons, and batted just .219/.268/.370 in 2007. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

    Monroe's contract is unique in that it's only partially guaranteed. If the Twins decide to cut him during spring training, they'll be on the hook for just one-sixth of his total salary, which comes out to "only" $636,667. Of course, the odds of the penny pinching Twins throwing away over $600,000 based on how Monroe looks in a few meaningless exhibition games down in Florida are beyond slim. He'll make the team and he'll make at least $3.82 million.

    The Twins' front office no doubt views Monroe as a "power hitter" and "proven run producer" because he averaged 22 homers and 82 RBIs while with the Tigers from 2003-2006. However, that's the same type of misguided thinking that led Ryan to sign Tony Batista two offseasons ago. Like Batista back then, Monroe has shown that he's no longer the player he was just a few seasons ago. And like Batista back then, the player that Monroe was just a few seasons ago wasn't especially good to begin with.

    Lost in the nice-looking homer and RBI totals is that Monroe has hit .256/.303/.446 over 2,658 career plate appearances in the majors, which is nearly identical to Batista's .251/.299/.453 career mark. He's still a better player now than Batista was in 2006, but in both cases the Twins willingly signed up for low on-base percentages and mediocre defense that wipe away whatever value that comes from the decent power.

    Monroe has some power, but major-league corner outfielders are supposed to have some pop in their bats and his all-around offensive game is lacking for the position. MLB corner outfielders as a whole batted .277/.347/.453 in 2007, which is about nine percent better than Monroe's career numbers and a level of production that he hasn't approached since 2004. Even at his best Monroe was more or less an average hitter for a corner outfielder, and those days are likely gone:
    YEAR       G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     IsoP     IsoD
    2003 128 .240 .287 .449 .736 .209 .047
    2004 128 .293 .337 .488 .825 .195 .044
    2005 157 .277 .322 .446 .768 .169 .045
    2006 147 .255 .301 .482 .783 .227 .046
    2007 122 .219 .268 .370 .638 .151 .049
    Monroe has hit .254/.300/.439 over the past three seasons and his .219/.268/.370 line from 2007 looks like something that belongs to Rondell White. However you slice it, Monroe is overmatched as an everyday player. Of course, with Young and Michael Cuddyer established in the outfield corners and Jason Kubel seemingly entrenched at designated hitter, the odds of Monroe being an everyday player appear minimal unless the Twins get crazy and play Monroe or Young in center field.

    A right-handed bat who's produced a horrible .249/.296/.425 hitting line against right-handed pitching during his career--including a pathetic .194/.247/.308 against righties in 2007--the optimal use for Monroe is to limit him almost exclusively to facing left-handed pitching. For his career he's batted .273/.319/.495 versus left-handers, including .271/.309/.496 against them despite his overall struggles in 2007. As a platoon starter against lefties, Monroe has some value.

    Unfortunately, that value isn't anywhere close to $3.82 million for a small-payroll team and as far as lefty-mashing platoon bats go Monroe isn't even particularly outstanding. Monroe has hit .281/.332/.481 against lefties over the past three seasons, which looks pretty good until you realize that it's actually below-average production for a right-handed hitting corner outfielder facing left-handed pitching. Most decent right-handed hitters thrive against lefties and true lefty mashers tend to ... well, mash them.

    Kevin Mench, who was non-tendered by the Brewers this week and will probably sign somewhere for less than Monroe, hit .305/.368/.558 against southpaws over the past three seasons. Emil Brown, who was non-tendered by the Royals yesterday, batted .289/.353/.488 against lefties during that same three-year span. Former AG.com favorite Bobby Kielty, who was non-tendered by the Red Sox two weeks ago, hit .313/.372/.494 against lefties from 2005-2007.

    Those are just three examples of players who recently became available, but the point is that finding a right-handed bat capable of matching Monroe's production against lefties isn't overly difficult. Mench, Brown, and Kielty are each better hitters than Monroe against lefties, yet were all cut loose by teams that were unwilling to pay them what the Twins are going to pay Monroe in 2008. Corner outfielders capable of posting solid numbers against lefties are available cheaply all the time.

    Even if Monroe bounces back from his awful 2007 season, the Twins have paid a premium for a part-time player who's at best mediocre offensively and defensively. And counting on that bounce back taking place is a mistake as well. Monroe's strikeout rate has gone from 15.3 percent in 2005 to 21.5 percent in 2006 and 25.1 percent in 2007, with the decreased ability to make contact suggesting that returning to his pre-2007 performance could prove tough.

    Monroe has always been a free swinger, drawing a non-intentional walk in fewer than six percent of his career plate appearances (about the same rate as Hunter). He once managed a high enough batting average to somewhat make up for the lack of plate discipline, but that hasn't been the case over the past two years. From 2001-2005, Monroe batted .266 while striking out in 17 percent of his plate appearances. Since then he's batted just .240 while striking out in 23 percent of his trips to the plate.

    Striking out about 35 percent more often is a sure-fire way to see your batting average plummet and it's also a sign that Monroe hasn't taken well to being on the wrong side of 30. In other words, reversing what has been a steady multi-year decline is going to be extremely difficult and the payoff is modest even if he succeeds. Monroe is ill-suited to be an everyday player and vastly overpaid as a reserve, and there are better, cheaper players available to fill either role.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Wednesday, December 12, 2007

    Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #16 Corey Koskie

    CORDEL LEONARD KOSKIE | 3B | 1998-2004 | CAREER STATS

    G PA AVG OBP SLG OPS+ WARP WS
    816 3257 .280 .373 .463 115 38.2 108
    A star baseball, hockey, and volleyball player growing up in Manitoba, Canada, the Twins used their 26th-round pick in the 1994 draft to select Corey Koskie out of Kwantlen College in British Columbia. He signed quickly and debuted at rookie-level Elizabethton as a 21-year-old, but then spent one full year at each of low Single-A, high Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, failing to receive any midseason promotions despite consistently putting up excellent numbers.

    After finally reaching Double-A as a 24-year-old in 1997, Koskie batted .296/.408/.531 with 23 homers, 55 total extra-base hits, and 90 walks in 131 games to make the Eastern League All-Star team as the starting third baseman. He moved up to Triple-A in 1998, hitting .301/.365/.539 with 26 homers, 63 total extra-base hits, and 51 walks in 135 games before finally earning his first in-season promotion in the form of a September call-up to Minnesota.

    When starter Frankie Rodriguez and reliever Dan Serafini combined to give up 10 runs while recording six outs against the Angels on September 9, 1998, Koskie came off the bench in the sixth inning to make his major-league debut, going 0-for-2 with two strikeouts after replacing Ron Coomer at third base. Koskie saw his next action three days later against the A's, pinch-hitting for Chris Latham in the eighth inning and singling to center field off Tim Worrell for his first career hit.

    Koskie started seven of the final 15 games and didn't show much while going 4-for-29 (.138), but still broke camp with the Twins the next spring. Koskie played sparingly through midseason, starting just 41 of the team's first 81 games in large part because manager Tom Kelly didn't think much of his defense at third base. Fewer than half of those starts came at third base and at one point Koskie went nearly six weeks without a single start there as Coomer and Brent Gates manned the position.

    The bulk of his sporadic early playing time came at designated hitter or right field (after Matt Lawton was injured), which allowed Koskie to at least show that his bat was clearly MLB-ready. He hit .301/.349/.462 through 81 games as one of the few capable hitters on a team that went on to rank dead last in the league offensively, yet totaled just 189 plate appearances. With the team 20-plus games out of the division race in early July, Kelly finally decided to make Koskie the regular third baseman.

    Koskie continued to sit against most left-handed pitchers while starting 52 of the final 81 games, but more importantly each of the 52 starts came at third base. He batted .318/.421/.471 during that stretch, finishing the season at .310/.387/.468 in 117 games overall to lead the Twins in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage as a rookie. In fact, Marty Cordova (.285/.365/.464) was the only other hitter on the entire team who was even above average offensively.

    Looking back, it's amazing how quickly Koskie went from playing right field or DH because his defense wasn't considered strong enough at third base to playing exclusively third base while being considered a very good defender there. Koskie never set foot in the outfield again after his rookie season and made a combined total of four starts at designated hitter over the next five years, all while establishing himself as one of the best, most underrated defensive third basemen in baseball.

    The Opening Day starter at third base in 2000, Koskie hit .300/.400/.441 in 146 games for an offense that ranked second worst in the league. He was one of three above-average regulars on the entire team, along with Lawton and David Ortiz, and ranked fourth among AL third baseman in Value Over Replacement Player behind Troy Glaus, Travis Fryman, and Eric Chavez. Having mastered defense while emerging as the team's best hitter, Koskie moved on to developing his home-run power.

    Koskie homered once every 24 at-bats in the minors, including 20-homer seasons at both Double-A and Triple-A, and batted .298/.388/.445 through his first two full big-league seasons. However, he managed just 21 homers in 845 at-bats, including nine homers in 474 at-bats during his sophomore campaign. That all changed in 2001 when Koskie put the finishing touches on his all-around game while having the finest year of his career as the Twins had their first winning season since 1992.

    Perhaps sacrificing some batting average for power after hitting .310 and .300 in his first two seasons, Koskie batted .276/.362/.488 with 26 homers, 37 doubles, 103 RBIs, and 100 runs. He played 153 games, logging over 1,300 innings at third base, and shockingly stole 27 bases at an 82-percent clip. Koskie's VORP trailed only Glaus and Chavez among AL third basemen and along with Gary Gaetti in 1988 it was the best non-Harmon Killebrew season ever by a Twins third baseman.

    Koskie's power dipped in 2002 without an increase in batting average and he missed a couple weeks with a hamstring injury that proved to be a sign of things to come when it came to his ability to stay on the field. Despite that, Koskie still managed to rank fourth among AL third baseman in VORP by hitting .267/.368/.447 with 15 homers, 37 doubles, and 72 walks in 140 games as the Twins won 94 games and the AL Central while advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 1991.

    A strained back limited Koskie to just 131 games in 2003 and his 20-homer power failed to resurface, but his batting average and OBP returned to their 2000-2001 levels as he hit .292/.393/.452 to lead the Twins in OPS. Koskie turned 30 years old midway through the 2003 season, but between a rapidly balding head and increasingly slow gait had the look of an old man for whom doing nearly anything seemed to be a chore.

    Koskie set a career-high with a .495 slugging percentage and smacked 25 homers in 2004, but saw his batting average dip to a career-low .251 while more injuries sidelined him for two weeks in May and three weeks in September. Despite showing plenty of signs that he was wearing down physically, Koskie actually played his best down the stretch, batting .281/.349/.607 from August 1 to the end of the season as the Twins held off the White Sox and Royals to win the division.

    He then came up big in the Twins' third straight trip to the postseason, batting .308 with a .474 OBP in the ALDS while nearly becoming a hero against the Yankees. After winning Game 1 at Yankee Stadium behind Johan Santana's seven shutout innings, the Twins trailed 5-3 heading into the eighth inning of Game 2. Mariano Rivera came in and got a fly out from Shannon Stewart before striking out Jacque Jones, but Jones reached first base on a wild pitch.

    Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau followed with back-to-back singles, cutting the Yankees' lead to 5-4 and bringing Koskie up with runners on the corners. Luis Rivas pinch-ran for Morneau, providing excellent speed as the go-ahead run at first base, and Koskie slashed a Rivera fastball into the left-field corner. Hunter jogged home with the tying run and Rivas had a chance to claim a lead that could have put the Twins up 2-0 in the series heading back to Minnesota.

    Except the ball took a big bounce, hopping over the left-field wall for a ground-rule double that kept Rivas locked at third base and the game tied at 5-5. As Yankees catcher Jorge Posada said afterward: "They would have scored two, no doubt about it." Instead, Jason Kubel and Cristian Guzman stranded Rivas 90 feet away from the plate and Alex Rodriguez's 12th-inning double scored Derek Jeter with the game-winning run.

    Instead of Koskie's hit off Rivera putting the Yankees on the verge of elimination, one bounce wiped away his series-changing moment and the Twins lost back-to-back games at the Metrodome to end their season. A pending free agent, that proved to be the final big hit of Koskie's career in Minnesota. In previewing the market that winter over at The Hardball Times, I wrote that Koskie was the "forgotten man among free-agent third basemen" and added:
    Just looking at Koskie, you'd think he was all washed up. He does everything methodically, from walking to swinging a bat, and it often appears as though he's in a constant state of hurt. After every diving stop at third base that ends an inning, he rolls the ball back to the pitcher's mound and slowly ambles over to the dugout, like an old man who forgot his walker.

    [...]

    Through all the pain, through all the missed games, through all the "did Koskie just hurt himself again?" moments, he has been one of the most valuable third basemen in baseball over the last five years. ... What you get with Koskie is power, patience and defense, but it also comes with a price. He's going to miss games, he's going to go through stretches where he looks completely lost at the plate, and he's going to struggle against left-handed pitching.

    If a team can overlook that, they'll have 130 games of great defense and solid hitting against right-handed pitchers, and they'll get it for a bargain price. With that said, there has probably never been a 32-year-old in baseball history who screamed out for a short-term, incentive-based contract quite like Koskie, who has spent a career teetering at the edge of the proverbial cliff.
    The Twins showed little interest in re-signing Koskie and he returned to Canada by inking a three-year, $16.5 million contract with the Blue Jays, thanking fans for their support with a full-page newspaper ad. After hitting just .249/.337/.398 while missing 65 games with a broken thumb during his first season in Toronto, the Blue Jays made Koskie available for pennies on the dollar via trade and the Twins once again passed despite having a hole at third base that they eventually chose to fill with Tony Batista.

    Koskie ended up with the Brewers, as the Blue Jays picked up most of his remaining contract and accepted a low-level prospect in return. He got off to a strong start in Milwaukee, batting .261/.343/.490 with 12 homers and 23 doubles in 76 games, but suffered a concussion after falling while chasing a pop-up on July 5. A debilitating bout with post-concussion syndrome followed, causing Koskie to miss the remainder of 2006 and all of 2007 while putting his career in serious doubt.

    A free agent again, Koskie indicated in October that he hopes to play again, but added: "If I can't play, I at least want my life back." He's often criticized for his lack of durability, which is certainly fair to some extent and could be a big part of his legacy given the way that his career may end. However, it's also likely overstated. He missed 44 games during his final season in Minnesota, which was the lasting image that Koskie left fans with, but prior to that he had 550 plate appearances in four straight years.

    His 3,257 plate appearances rank 20th in team history and ignoring his rookie year, when Koskie was kept out of the lineup by his manager rather than by injuries, he averaged 138 games per season in Minnesota. For comparison, Torii Hunter averaged 141 games in seven seasons after he became a full-time player. Hunter somehow has a reputation for being an iron man and had different types of injuries, but at the end of the day was essentially out of the lineup as often as the "injury prone" Koskie.

    VORP is a "counting stat" that blends together performance and playing time, and lack of durability or not Koskie led the Twins in VORP three times and ranked second twice before finishing third during his final year. A .280/.373/.463 career hitter with the Twins, he ranked sixth, fourth, third, sixth, fourth, and seventh among AL third baseman in VORP during six full seasons in Minnesota. Among hitters with at least 3,000 plate appearances in a Twins uniform, only six posted a higher OPS+ than Koskie:
                          OPS+
    Harmon Killebrew 146
    Rod Carew 137
    Tony Oliva 131
    Kent Hrbek 128
    Bob Allison 127
    Kirby Puckett 124
    COREY KOSKIE 115
    That's some elite company and Koskie's 115 OPS+ ranks ahead of Gaetti, Hunter, Lawton, Earl Battey, Chuck Knoblauch, Tom Brunansky, Roy Smalley, Cesar Tovar, and Jacque Jones, among others. For comparison, Morneau has a Koskie-like 117 OPS+ in 2,299 career plate appearances. Beyond that, VORP and OPS+ only account for offense, and Koskie was an outstanding defender who added a ton of value with his glove at third base.

    A clubhouse favorite whose numerous pranks included filling an unsuspecting Ortiz's underwear with peanut butter, Koskie spent part of his Twins career starring on horrible teams and then finished his time in Minnesota cultivating an "injury prone" label that he'll never shed. The end result is a career that goes down as one of the most underrated in team history and a player who ranks as the best Twins third baseman of all time.
    TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:

    OBP .373 7th
    OPS .836 8th
    Home Runs 101 11th
    SLG .463 11th
    Walks 385 11th
    RBIs 437 12th
    Doubles 180 14th
    XBH 294 14th
    Total Bases 1290 16th
    Runs 438 17th
    Hits 781 18th
    Steals 66 18th
    AVG .280 19th
    For a complete list of other write-ups in the ongoing "Top 40 Minnesota Twins" series, click here.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Monday, December 10, 2007

    Twins Notes: Eckstein, Rule 5, and Jennie

  • While speaking to reporters at the winter meetings last week, Ron Gardenhire indicated that he'd like the Twins to pursue free agent David Eckstein, saying: "I've always had a lot of respect for him. He catches the ball. He knows how to play. He's a proven winner." There's plenty of room to poke fun at a quote like that and the comments section here was predictably filled with a lot of anti-Eckstein (and anti-Gardenhire) sentiments.

    There's little doubt that Eckstein is significantly overrated by a fawning mainstream media and Nick Punto-loving managers, but the perception that many fans seem to have of him being a horrible player is just as off base. Eckstein has seemingly become so overrated in some circles that he's underrated in other circles. In other words, he's a poor man's Derek Jeter. At the end of the day how Eckstein is "rated" matters little, which leaves his actual on-field performance to evaluate.

    Judging from the many comments and e-mails that I received on the subject, many people seem to view him as a Punto-like hitter. In reality that's far from the case, as Eckstein's .286/.351/.362 career hitting line is vastly superior to Punto's .245/.314/.321 career mark. Instead, the player who Eckstein truly resembles offensively is Luis Castillo. In fact, whether looking at this season or the past three seasons, Castillo and Eckstein have been about as similar as two hitters can be:
    2007            PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
    Eckstein 484 .309 .356 .382 .738
    Castillo 615 .301 .362 .359 .721

    2005-2007 PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Eckstein 1449 .297 .357 .375 .732
    Castillo 1791 .299 .369 .367 .736
    They're both middle infielders who were born in 1975 and have consistently hit around .300 with very limited power and good on-base skills. Eckstein is basically a right-handed hitting version of Castillo, except that he can play a passable shortstop while Castillo is limited to second base. Beyond that, Eckstein's .297/.357/.375 hitting line over the past three seasons also compares favorably to Jason Bartlett's .272/.341/.362 career mark.

    To be clear, I'm not suggesting that the Twins should sign Eckstein to a three- or four-year contract, because that would be an obvious mistake. At the same time, as a short-term fix for a team that's currently lacking in appealing middle-infield options he'd be fine if the price was right. His defensive numbers at shortstop were sub par this season, but he's shown the ability to capably man the position in the past and would likely be above average at second base (where he played in the minors).

    At worst he's a better fielder than Brendan Harris, a much better all-around player than Punto, and essentially represents the best-case scenario for Alexi Casilla offensively. Is Eckstein as good as guys like Gardenhire or Tim McCarver or Joe Morgan think? Definitely not, but if Eckstein could hit his usual .300/.350/.375 with decent defense up the middle he's a very solid player who could absolutely help the Twins in 2008.


  • Last Monday in this space I noted that "the Twins are in danger of losing several solid prospects" via the Rule 5 draft, which took place Thursday afternoon at the winter meetings in Nashville. Among the players exposed to the draft and eligible to be plucked from the organization by other teams were Brock Peterson, Yohan Pino, Garrett Guzman, and David Winfree, all of whom figured to make my annual list of the Twins' top 40 prospects when it comes out later this winter.

    The good news is that the Twins avoided losing Peterson, Pino, and Winfree. The bad news is that they had a total of six players plucked from the organization, including Guzman, who was selected by the Nationals. Between Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes, Nook Logan, and Ryan Langerhans the Nationals seemingly have way more than enough outfield depth, which increases the chances of Guzman not making the team out of spring training.

    If that happens then Guzman will be offered back to the Twins prior to Opening Day, in which case no harm is done. Of course, strong outfield depth or not the Nationals may simply decide to keep Guzman around as their 25th man, in which case the Twins have given away one of the few solid upper-minors hitting prospects in the entire organization for absolutely nothing just because they didn't see fit to give him a spot on a 40-man roster that had plenty of room.

    Guzman is certainly a long shot to become an impact player in the majors, but he's also very capable of becoming a solid big leaguer after hitting .312/.359/.453 in 125 games at Double-A in 2007. He's a .290 hitter in 516 minor-league games who's struck out in fewer than 11 percent of his 2,085 career plate appearances and has shown increased power since coming back from a broken neck that wiped away his 2005 season following a car accident.

    In other words, he's a solid young hitter who has a chance to carve out of an MLB career, which can't be said for many of the Twins' position-player prospects above Single-A. Toss in Alexander Smit and Alex Romero, and the Twins have given away three perfectly good prospects in the past year. There's a chance that all three fail to become anything worthwhile and losing Guzman may become a non-issue, but at some point these repeated mistakes made managing the 40-man roster will hurt the Twins.


  • Guzman was the best of the Twins prospects lost in the Rule 5 draft, but reliever Tim Lahey actually went No. 1 overall. Drafted as a catcher out of Princeton University, Lahey moved to the mound in 2005 and has posted a 3.94 ERA with a 145-to-70 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 178.1 career innings. Lahey had a 3.45 ERA and 56-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 78.1 innings at Double-A in 2007, which is far from a great performance in a pitcher-friendly environment.

    On the other hand, Lahey is 6-foot-5 and about 250 pounds, induces tons of ground balls, and has far less pitching experience than most 25-year-olds at Double-A, so there's more room for long-term development than his mediocre numbers suggest. With that said, the Twins can't be blamed much for exposing him to the draft and the fact that he was picked at all is a surprise. That he went No. 1 overall and was then traded for $150,000 is a shock.

    Lahey will try to crack the Cubs' bullpen, but like Guzman there's seemingly a strong chance that he'll be offered back to the Twins. Along with Lahey leading off the draft, another surprise was that the Mariners selected R.A. Dickey one week after he joined the Twins on a minor-league deal. Chris Gomez was selected shortly after signing a minor-league contract a few years ago, so it's not unheard of, but it's odd given that the Mariners could have convinced Dickey to sign with them instead.

    Losing a minor leaguer days after signing him obviously isn't a big blow, but Dickey is intriguing after going from "regular" pitcher to knuckleballer and posting a 3.73 ERA with a 119-to-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 169 innings at Triple-A. He was slated for the Rochester rotation and could have found himself in Minnesota at some point. Dickey, Lahey, and Guzman were lost in the draft's MLB phase, but the Twins also lost three guys in the minor-league portion (which is how they got Brian Buscher last year).

    Losing right-handers J.P. Martinez and Joshua Hill is no concern, but Martinez was a ninth-round pick in 2004 and Hill has been in the organization since signing out of Australia in 2001. Neither pitcher projects to ever be anything more than a middle reliever in the majors, if that. Rashad Eldridge is also a long shot to have any sort of MLB career, but as a center fielder who hit .291/.360/.429 in 105 games at Double-A in 2007 he was worthwhile depth in an organization that's thin in the outfield.


  • Last week the Twins inked Casey Daigle to a minor-league contract. Daigle was a first-round pick back in 1999, but has been a bust as a pro and posted a 6.59 ERA in 109.1 innings at Triple-A in 2007. He'll probably step into Dickey's spot in the Rochester rotation and there's admittedly little reason for me to make note of his signing, except for the fact that he's married to Jennie Finch. Finch is one of the most successful softball players of all time, starred on the 2004 Olympic team, and looks like this:

    Here's a picture of the happy couple, who amusingly named their son "Ace." Not to take anything away from Jim Mandelaro, but the crowd at Red Wings games just got a lot more attractive.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Friday, December 07, 2007

    Link-O-Rama

  • Thankfully, being fat and being resourceful have always gone hand in hand:


    When you've been "fat since birth" it leads to some truly miraculous discoveries.


  • On the other hand, when you spend about 25 years being exceptionally attractive and then become somewhat less exceptionally attractive, the discoveries made while swimming in public places aren't quite so miraculous.


  • Grow, damn it!


  • At first glance this offer seems fair, but I still think that the Twins should hold out for Matt Kemp.


  • Otis Nixon looked to be approximately 48 years old when he was playing center field for the Twins in 1998, but now he's actually 48 years old and is writing a book about his life "in the belly of the beast."


  • Two weeks ago in this space I passed along some gossip from the Bubba The Love Sponge radio show about how Timberwolves guard Marko Jaric once "dated" Penthouse Pet Jaime Hammer. At the time I wrote that Jaric "must be doing something right" despite being an overpaid role player because "Hammer probably isn't the only woman he's dated who makes a living by being attractive." Little did I know at the time how right that was.

    Jaric is reportedly now dating (without the quotation marks) Victoria's Secret model Adriana Lima and being with her has seemingly improved his on-court performance. Jaric is averaging 15 points and six assists per game over the past two weeks after averaging just five points and two assists in 70 games last season. As teammate Mark Madsen explained: "Ever since he started dating Adriana Lima, he's a new man. He's flying all over the court. He dunked! I've never seen him dunk." A comparison:

    That's Hammer on the left, the NBA's luckiest player in the middle, and Lima on the left. It took me about 15 minutes just to find a picture of Hammer that features her in some level of clothing, which shows the great lengths that I'm willing to go for my readers. UPDATE: There's also this.


  • Earlier this week the New York Times ran an article about the most painful breakup of my life.


  • I'm not sure why, but this picture of David Ortiz struck me as hilarious.


  • The people have spoken via a poll on Playboy's website and with "nearly 40 percent of the votes" Erin Andrews of ESPN predictably won the title of America's Sexiest Sportscaster. I continue to believe that Bonnie Bernstein and my NBC Sports colleague Shana Hiatt were robbed. Someone really needs to put together a local version of the contest, if only so that the millions of Marney Gellner fans can be heard from.


  • Presumably FSN will be contacting me any day now to establish a similar partnership.


  • When he's not forcing people to turn off their televisions, getting fired from his newspaper gig for sub par work, and typing up columns on his Blackberry, Stephen A. Smith has some wonderful thoughts on bloggers. My favorite part is when Smith said, presumably with something resembling a straight face: "I respect the journalism industry." If Smith and Bill Conlin ever team up, bloggers are in trouble.


  • If you've ever wondered what Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com LaVelle E. Neal III looks like while doing his job, here's your chance:

  • And yes, it's every bit as thrilling as it appears. Sadly, no one snapped any photos of the assembled media at Ron Gardenhire's winter meetings press conference last year, when you would have seen me front and center playing reporter-for-a-day with my little notebook. Gardenhire got more dressed up this time, ditching the sunglasses-around-the-neck look that he sported last year. The first person to identify every media member in the above photo gets a free year's subscription to AG.com.

  • Here's the winner of this week's Ridiculously Homerish Thing Written By Sid Hartman:
    Manager Ron Gardenhire has shown his ability to keep clubhouse problems from escalating out of control.
    Does it count as "escalating out of control" when a pitcher takes a baseball bat to the manager's office door? Or how about when one of the team's star players attempts to punch another of the team's star players in the face, but misses and hits one of the team's worst players instead? Apparently the Twins' clubhouse would be like Thunderdome if Gardenhire wasn't so great at keeping things calm.


  • Speaking of Torii Hunter's attempt to punch Justin Morneau in the face, Hartman's colleague Jim Souhan predictably opined in the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his beloved "face of the franchise" only "did so because he thought that's what his manager wanted." Such a prince, that Hunter.


  • What do you get when you combine Hartman's obliviousness with Souhan's horrendous analysis? St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Bob Sansevere suggesting that the Twins should acquire Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz from the Red Sox. But wait, the idea that the Twins could somehow pry those five players away from Boston actually isn't the most absurd part. Seriously.

    Among the players Sansevere thinks the Twins should send back to the Red Sox in his proposed trade? Free agent Carlos Silva, who the team has absolutely zero control over and can sign anywhere. A well-paid, high-profile writer who's long been employed to provide sports analysis for a major newspaper, Sansevere finishes his embarrassment of a column by writing: "I have just one question. What's Twins general manager Bill Smith waiting for? He should have this deal done by now."

    Anyone wanna buy a newspaper?


  • For someone reason I often forget to include Marisa Miller when the subject of Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com candidates comes up, which is clearly a mistake.


  • Having seen his last MLB action in 2005, former Twins prospect Matt Kinney is heading to Japan, potentially setting up a historic Kinney-Lew Ford matchup in 2008.


  • As a Dan Barreiro fan from way back I'm glad to see him sign a new contract, but hopefully at some point within the next six years he'll stop the illogical ax-grinding against Kevin Garnett and Joe Mauer.


  • Bill Simmons' recent letter to a junior-high version of himself was very amusing.


  • One thing that you can always count on is that when a mainstream media member mentions me in a positive light while doing an interview somewhere, I'll link to it (scroll down to the final question).


  • As a longtime Adam Carolla fan, I couldn't possibly be rooting any harder for former Eagles running back and kick returner Vai Sikahema. I've never actually heard Sikahema speak, but nothing would make me happier than to see them fight for the co-host job.


  • One of the Diamond-Mind keeper leagues that I'm in suddenly has several openings. It's a hardcore, time-consuming league and we're looking for people who have previous Diamond-Mind experience. If you're interested and fit that bill, drop me an e-mail.


  • Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is Anthony Hamilton doing a live, low-key version of "Charlene" while accompanied only by a guitar:




  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.