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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.
5. Ben Revere | Center Field | DOB: 5/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2007-1

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 RK 216 .325 .388 .461 0 16 13 20
2008 A- 374 .379 .433 .497 1 28 27 31
2009 A+ 517 .311 .372 .369 2 19 40 34
Any prospect would look great while leading the minor leagues in batting average like Ben Revere did in 2008, but hitting "only" .311 last season showed why his long-term upside is limited. That mark still ranked second in the Florida State League, yet Revere couldn't even crack a .750 OPS thanks to just 34 walks, two homers, and 19 total extra-base hits in 121 games. The good news is that Revere's blazing speed and excellent contact rate should allow him to maintain lofty batting averages.

The bad news is that even if he hits .300 in the majors Revere's secondary skills would basically make him Juan Pierre. In fact, their minor-league stats were very similar at this stage. Both spent age 21 at Single-A. Pierre hit .320/.366/.390. Revere hit .311/.372/.369. Pierre homered once, stole 66 bags, and had 38 walks versus 37 strikeouts. Revere homered twice, stole 45 bags, and had 40 walks versus 34 strikeouts. Being the next Pierre certainly isn't a bad thing, but it's not really a great thing either.

And right now that appears to be Revere's ceiling, which doesn't leave much room for error if he's only able to hit, say, .280 in the majors. Any thoughts of Revere developing the power to move beyond Pierre territory to comparisons with a higher level of speedy, weak-armed center fielders like Kenny Lofton or Johnny Damon have been all but extinguished and pitchers will never be afraid to throw him strikes, so the most likely way to improve his outlook would be upping his walk rate from bad to mediocre.
4. Miguel Angel Sano | Shortstop | DOB: 5/93 | Bats: Right | Sign: Dominican
Considered by many to be the premier international prospect available last year and one of the most advanced bats to come out of the Dominican Republic in a long time, Miguel Angel Sano saw multiple teams end their pursuit once MLB was unable to confirm his age. Instead of signing along with the rest of the top international players in July he waited until September, choosing the Twins over the Pirates and several other teams for a $3.15 million bonus that was lower than expected.

Of course, $3.15 million is still by far the highest bonus that the Twins have handed out internationally and ranks as the second-most any team has ever given to a Latin American prospect outside of Cuba. Investing in international prospects is incredibly risky, but the Twins should be applauded for spending the money to land Sano and ultimately his signing bonus is less than Nick Punto makes per season. And at the age of 16 the consensus is that Sano has almost limitless upside offensively.

In fact, praise for his bat is strong enough that no one seems to care that he has little shot of sticking at shortstop (or even third base). He's already 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, which obviously led to the doubts about his age, but even if he's actually 18 or 19 the signing is a worthwhile risk. Had he been eligible for the draft Sano almost surely would've been a first-round pick and perhaps a top-five selection. He's yet to play a minor-league game, so believe it or not his spot on this list is actually sort of conservative.
3. Wilson Ramos | Catcher | DOB: 8/87 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 A- 316 .291 .345 .438 8 26 19 61
2008 A+ 500 .288 .346 .434 13 38 37 103
2009 AA 214 .317 .341 .454 4 20 6 23
Promoted to Double-A as a 21-year-old after thriving in the low minors, Wilson Ramos missed around two-thirds of the season with finger and hamstring injuries while continuing to show tons of promise in the 54 games he was healthy enough to play. Ramos hit .317 with 20 extra-base hits in 205 at-bats for a .795 OPS in a league where the average mark was .717 and the average hitter was 24. Oh, and he's also a catcher who gunned down over 40 percent of steal attempts for the second straight season.

Ramos has never walked much and basically swung at everything last year, drawing six free passes in 214 trips to the plate. At some point he'll have to be more patient to take full advantage of his offensive potential, but a 21-year-old hacking away versus Double-A pitchers is expected and Ramos did hit .317 while cutting his strikeout rate in half. Plus, after the season he went to the Venezuelan Winter League, where in addition to batting .332 with 12 homers and 14 doubles in 54 games he drew 21 walks.

Solid defensive reviews, excellent throw-out stats, and consistently strong batting make Ramos one of the best catching prospects in baseball. He's a career .294 hitter and has shown plenty of pop despite pitcher-friendly environments and being young for every level. Ramos has played just 54 games above Single-A and catching prospects have a notoriously high flameout rate, so there's no need to question where he'd fit on a team with Joe Mauer quite yet, but a healthy, productive 2010 would change that.
2. Kyle Gibson | Starter | DOB: 10/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2009-1
Initially a consensus top-10 pick who Baseball America ranked as high as the fourth-best player in last June's draft, Kyle Gibson fell into the Twins' lap with the 22nd pick after a late-season dip in velocity led to the discovery a stress fracture in his forearm. Once he received a clean bill of health Gibson held out for top-10 money, eventually signing for $1.8 million literally minutes before the August 18 deadline and too late for the 6-foot-6 right-hander to make his pro debut.

Despite pitching through the injury in a hitter-friendly environment that averaged over 11 runs per game, Gibson was 11-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 131-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 106.2 innings during his final year at the University of Missouri. He works primarily in the low-90s with his fastball and also features a pair of plus off-speed pitches in a changeup and sharp slider, throwing everything with great command and some sinking action.

He doesn't quite project as a dominant ace, but just about everyone seems to agree that he's capable of becoming a strong No. 2 starter and should move very quickly up the minor-league ladder. Thanks to their willingness to gamble a bit on what proved to be a short-term injury the Twins were able to nab an experienced college starter who'd been projected as a top-10 pick for several years, and Gibson fits the organization's preferred strike-throwing mold with better raw stuff than their usual control artists.
1. Aaron Hicks | Center Field | DOB: 10/89 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2008-1

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2008 RK 204 .318 .409 .491 4 18 28 32
2009 A- 297 .251 .353 .382 4 22 40 55
Prior to the 2008 draft Baseball America called Aaron Hicks "the finest prep outfielder-pitcher prospect in the greater Los Angeles area since Daryl Strawberry." Most teams liked Hicks as a pitcher, but the Twins picked him 14th overall as a hitter and he made an immediate splash by batting .318 with power and patience at rookie-ball after signing for $1.8 million. Rather than jump straight to full-season action last year the Twins kept him in extended spring training until June and then sent him to low Single-A.

Hicks played 67 games alongside No. 6 prospect Angel Morales in Beloit's outfield, but failed to match his great debut by hitting just .251 with four homers. The good news is that his glove received positive reviews in center field and he drew 40 walks in just 297 trips to the plate, proving that the surprisingly strong plate discipline he showed in rookie-ball was no fluke. In fact, he had the second-highest walk rate of any hitter in the Twins' entire minor-league system. As a 19-year-old in his full-season debut.

Rarely is such a patient approach found in a teenager, let alone a teenager billed as a "five-tool talent." He has plus speed with an absolute cannon for an arm and is expected to develop 20-homer power as a switch-hitter, which along with a strong walk rate would make him pretty close to a perfect all-around player. At this point Hicks is far more about projection than performance, but his OPS was solidly above the Midwest League average as a 19-year-old and any way you slice it his upside is tremendous.




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Monday, February 22, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 10, 9, 8, 7, 6

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.
10. Billy Bullock | Reliever | DOB: 2/88 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2009-2

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2009 RK 7 0 1.23 7.1 3 0 10 1
A- 26 0 2.73 26.1 25 0 35 12
Going heavy on college pitchers in last June's draft included snagging University of Florida reliever Billy Bullock in the second round. Initially a starter, Bullock moved to the bullpen last year and became the Gators' closer while posting a 2.64 ERA and 50-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 48 innings. His control is spotty and no one seems to think much of his off-speed stuff, but Bullock also regularly works in the mid-90s with his fastball and was frequently dominant for one of the best teams in the country.

Keith Law of ESPN.com called him "the top college closer in this draft class" and Bullock dominated in the low minors after signing for $522,000, saving 11 games with a 2.41 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 33.2 innings between rookie-ball and low Single-A. Because of their preference for polished strike-throwers the Twins typically lack high-upside power arms in the minors and Bullock was frequently projected as a top-50 pick before falling to them at No. 70 overall, so he's a very nice addition to the system.

Harnessing his raw stuff and developing better off-speed pitches will be key for Bullock, but 35 walks in 82 innings between college and the low minors last year shows that his control is at least reasonably decent and ultimately his fastball is what got him drafted. Early success this season could put Bullock on the fast track to Minnesota, but whether or not he's able to continue simply overpowering everyone once he gets to Double-A or Triple-A will be the big test.
9. Matthew Bashore | Starter | DOB: 4/88 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2009-1

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2009 RK 1 0 0.00 2.0 3 0 2 0
Selected last June with the supplemental first-round pick the Twins received for losing Dennys Reyes via free agency, Matthew Bashore signed for $750,000 but appeared in just one game at rookie-level Elizabethton before being shut down with an elbow injury. He had bone chips removed, but is expected to be fully healthy for spring training and will likely begin this season at low Single-A. If healthy Bashore has a chance to move quickly through the Twins' system because of his extensive college experience.

A three-year starter at Indiana University, the 6-foot-3 left-hander tossed 95 innings last season with a 4.07 ERA and 108-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He won't light up any radar guns, but Bashore has an above-average fastball with the plus command that the Twins always target in starters and was one of the better pitchers in the Big Ten while going 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA in conference play. Bashore finished his Hoosiers career tied for the school record with 248 strikeouts.

John Manuel of Baseball America has compared Bashore to fellow Big Ten left-hander and Twins first rounder Glen Perkins. Their pedigrees and repertoires are definitely similar, but Perkins had far better college numbers, was generally a more consistent Big Ten performer, and reached Double-A midway through his age-22 season. Bashore turns 22 in April, so given his brief pro debut it'll be tough to follow the same path, but assuming no more elbow issues his overall upside certainly seems Perkins-like.
8. Danny Valencia | Third Base | DOB: 9/84 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2006-19

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 A- 271 .302 .374 .500 11 26 28 54
A+ 250 .291 .332 .422 6 16 16 48
2008 A+ 251 .336 .402 .518 5 28 27 43
AA 287 .289 .334 .485 10 30 18 70
2009 AA 252 .284 .373 .482 7 25 31 40
AAA 282 .286 .304 .454 7 31 8 37
In less than four years Danny Valencia has gone from 19th-round pick to the presumed third baseman of the future in Minnesota, which is remarkable given that his minor-league production has been closer to good than great. He's hit .299/.354/.480 with an average of 16.5 homers per 500 at-bats, which while certainly a solid performance is hardly the stuff of an elite prospect even without accounting for the fact that Valencia is already 25 years old and accumulated nearly 2.5 strikeouts for every walk.

He's had strong batting averages at every level, but Valencia doesn't possess especially great power, strikes out quite a bit, has averaged just 45 walks per 600 plate appearances, and had an ugly 37-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 71 games in his first taste of Triple-A. To be clear, Valencia is a good, solid prospect. However, the notion that he has obvious star potential or is even a sure thing to become an above-average regular in the majors just isn't supported by his track record.

Certainly many prospects fare better in the majors than they did in the minors, but usually that group doesn't include guys who post an .833 OPS despite being relatively old for each level and reach the big leagues at age 25. That he's touted as the long-term answer at third base may say less about Valencia and more about how bad the spot has been since Corey Koskie or how few of the Twins' quality hitting prospects are MLB-ready. He looks like a .270 hitter with 15-homer pop, few walks, and a decent glove.
7. David Bromberg | Starter | DOB: 9/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2005-32

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 RK 13 11 2.78 58.1 45 4 81 32
2008 A- 27 27 4.44 150.0 149 10 177 54
2009 A+ 27 26 2.70 153.1 125 6 148 63
Named the Twins' minor league pitcher of the year in 2009 after leading his league in strikeouts for the third straight season, David Bromberg has gone from 32nd-round pick to one of the system's top arms despite not fitting into the preferred strike-throwing mold. In fact, from rookie-ball to the majors he led the entire Twins organization in walks last season with 63 in 153.1 innings. Of course, he also ranked second to only Scott Baker with 148 strikeouts and opponents hit just .230 with six homers off him.

Moving up to Double-A figures to provide a big test for Bromberg's run of league-leading strikeout totals and overall performance, because his low-90s fastball isn't overpowering and fairly neutral ground-ball rates suggest the homers will start flying eventually. He can offset what will likely be fewer missed bats and more homers with improved control, and ultimately that may be the key to whether or not Bromberg can develop into more than a potential mid-rotation starter.

At just 22 years old there's plenty of time to cut down on walks and at 6-foot-5 there's seemingly plenty of room to project increased velocity, which along with a big-breaking curveball leaves the right-hander with as much upside as any Twins pitching prospect short of perhaps 2009 first rounder Kyle Gibson. However, recently the Twins have been kind of hit (Matt Garza, Francisco Liriano) or miss (J.D. Durbin, Shooter Hunt) with their few starter prospects who, like Bromberg, aren't strike-throwing machines.
6. Angel Morales | Center Field | DOB: 11/89 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2007-3

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 RK- 143 .256 .357 .405 2 11 12 44
2008 RK 218 .301 .413 .623 15 28 26 72
2009 A- 418 .266 .329 .455 13 40 30 104
After a monster 2008 at rookie-ball Angel Morales moved to low Single-A for his first full-season action and got off to a brutal start while battling multiple injuries. He turned things around by hitting .340 after July 1, led Beloit in homers and steals, and finished with an OPS that was 12 percent above the league average, including 40 extra-base hits in 115 games for a .189 Isolated Power that ranked 62 percent above par for the Midwest League. And he did all that as a 19-year-old.

Morales' flaws were also on full display, as he rarely walked and struck out 104 times in 418 trips to the plate. Whiffing in 25 percent of his plate appearances actually represented improvement from Morales striking out 32 percent of the time in rookie-ball, but his inability to make consistent contact and control the strike zone are definitely worrisome. Of course, an unrefined approach at the plate is common for a teenage hitter and the former third-round pick's other tools are very impressive.

His power potential is immense, with 28 homers and 68 total extra-base hits in 559 at-bats during the past two seasons despite playing in extremely pitcher-friendly environments, and Morales' speed has led to 27 steals per 150 career games and a reputation as a solid defender in center field. He could eventually slide over to right field full time, especially if he remains with the Twins, but Morales also has a very strong arm. He's certainly far from a finished product, but Morales oozes upside at age 20.




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Friday, February 19, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 15, 14, 13, 12, 11

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.
15. Jeff Manship | Starter | DOB: 1/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2006-14

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 A- 13 13 1.51 77.2 51 4 77 9
A+ 13 13 3.15 71.1 77 5 59 25
2008 A+ 13 13 2.86 78.2 68 0 63 20
AA 14 14 4.46 76.2 90 8 62 24
2009 AA 13 13 4.28 75.2 72 2 45 20
AAA 8 8 3.22 50.1 53 1 30 17
MLB 11 5 5.68 31.2 39 4 21 15
Selected in the 14th round of the 2006 draft and lured away from Notre Dame with a $300,000 signing bonus that was more like third-round money, Jeff Manship hit the low minors like gangbusters but has since seen the steady deterioration of his numbers with each move up the organizational ladder. While not uncommon, in Manship's case the consistent level-by-level slippage in his strikeout and walk rates have left him looking like little more than a potential back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.

His big-league debut came in August, first as a low-leverage reliever and then into the rotation for five late-season starts, but Manship struggled with a 5.68 ERA and 21-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.2 innings while averaging just 89.8 miles per hour with his fastball. Prior to that he had a 4.09 ERA and 137-to-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 202.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, so without delving all the way back into Single-A days it's tough to find signs of upside and Manship is already 25 years old.

More than 50 percent of Manship's balls in play have been grounders in each of his four pro seasons and like just about every Twins pitching prospect his control is pretty good, so he's certainly not totally without value. Somewhat similar to Anthony Swarzak in that Manship is MLB-ready yet it's unclear if he fits into the Twins' plans as a fifth starter, reliever, or trade piece. He'll compete for the final rotation spot this spring before likely heading to Triple-A, where he'll be near the front of the line for a call-up.
14. Joe Benson | Center Field | DOB: 3/88 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2006-2

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 A- 507 .255 .347 .368 5 31 49 124
2008 A- 290 .248 .326 .382 4 23 24 73
2009 A+ 327 .285 .414 .403 5 18 46 74
Joe Benson hit just .254/.337/.386 through three pro seasons and missed half of 2008 with a stress fracture in his back while repeating low Single-A, but the Twins moved him up to high Single-A last year anyway and the 2006 second rounder fared surprisingly well. Benson hit .285 after batting .260, .255, and .248 in his first three seasons and upped his walk rate by 60 percent. Unfortunately he was limited to 80 games because of another injury, this time a broken hand suffered punching a wall in frustration.

Aside from that wall Benson has been unable to make consistent contact, whiffing 140 times per 600 plate appearances for his career. Along with the high strikeout rate and low batting average he's also a terrible base-stealer despite possessing good speed, which is why last season's walk increase is key for Benson's development offensively. Defensively he's considered a solid center fielder, but because of a strong arm and the organization's log jam at the position he may end up in right field long term.

He won't be 22 years old until next month, so Benson still has time on his side, but inconsistency and injuries continue to make him more about tools and potential than actual production. That's not such a good thing for someone entering his fifth pro season, yet if Benson stays healthy and performs well in 2010 he could be knocking on the door to the majors at some point in 2011. His tools put him closer to being a big leaguer than the mediocre numbers suggest, but at some point that ceases being enough.
13. Adrian Salcedo | Starter | DOB: 4/91 | Throws: Right | Sign: Dominican

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2009 RK- 11 10 1.46 61.2 60 1 58 3
Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old two winters ago, Adrian Salcedo began his pro career in 2008 by dominating in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 1.65 ERA, .198 opponents' batting average, and 50-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 65.1 innings. He moved up a level to the first rung on the American minor-league ladder last year and had equally ridiculous numbers in the Gulf Coast League with a 1.46 ERA and 58-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61.2 innings.

By themselves even those great numbers wouldn't be enough for Salcedo to rank this highly, because plenty of pitchers have insanely good stats in rookie-ball and the Twins' entire GCL pitching staff (which also included No. 18 prospect B.J. Hermsen) had a combined 2.46 ERA last season. What makes his insanely good stats particularly impressive is that Salcedo was just 18 years old--which is young even for the youngest league--and more importantly has the raw stuff to match.

Despite packing only 175 pounds on to a 6-foot-4 frame, his fastball is already regularly in the low-90s and can reach the mid-90s. Salcedo complements the plus heater with what John Manuel of Baseball America calls "a mid-80s power breaking ball" and also has an effective changeup for a teenager. His stats are amazing, his stuff is already very strong, and between his age and body type there's plenty of room for projection. As far as teenage, rookie-ball pitching prospects go, Salcedo is a really good one.
12. Chris Parmelee | Right Field | DOB: 2/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2006-1

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 A- 501 .239 .313 .414 15 43 46 137
2008 A- 289 .239 .385 .496 14 27 52 83
2009 A+ 501 .258 .359 .441 16 44 65 109
Chris Parmelee is all about power and patience, which makes him stick out within an organization that stresses just about everything else and has generally shied away from players like him. Of course, the Twins selected him with the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft, so presumably they still like Parmelee despite his lack of resemblance to just about every other prospect in the system. And as long as they're willing to look past the strikeouts and low batting averages, there's still plenty to like.

Parmelee stayed healthy last season after missing half of 2008 with a wrist injury, moving up from low Single-A to high Single-A while leading the Florida State League in walks and ranking third in homers. Despite the lowly .258 batting average Parmelee's overall production was 15 percent above the league average and his Isolated Power was 65 percent above par. Pitcher-friendly environments mute his raw numbers, but Parmelee has a ton of power and loads of plate discipline. That's the good news.

The bad news is that most of MLB's best low-average sluggers actually hit for solid batting averages in the minors. Adam Dunn hit .304, Pat Burrell hit .303, Matt Stairs hit .293, Troy Glaus hit .288, Carlos Pena hit .283, and most of the other prominent guys were above .270. In other words, a .250 average in the minors may get Parmelee compared to Dunn or Burrell, but guys who hit .250 with big power in the majors typically hit at least .275 with big power in the minors. Until that happens, he's a question mark.
11. Rene Tosoni | Right Field | DOB: 7/86 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2005-36

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 RK 286 .301 .407 .428 3 20 32 48
2008 A+ 170 .300 .408 .414 1 11 21 30
2009 AA 490 .271 .360 .454 15 44 45 98
After drafting him in 2004 out of a Canadian high school and in 2005 out of a Florida junior college, the Twins had Rene Tosoni skip low Single-A and spend his first full season at high Single-A in 2008. He hit .300/.408/.414 with nice strike-zone control despite being one of the Florida State League's younger players, but was limited to 42 games because of a broken foot. That setback didn't stop the Twins from moving him to Double-A last year and Tosoni stayed healthy while hitting .271/.360/.454 in 122 games.

Tosoni hasn't shown a standout skill yet, but seems to do just about everything pretty well. He's hit .287 through 963 plate appearances as a pro, draws a fair number of walks without tons of strikeouts, has above-average speed, flashed more pop than expected last year, and is considered a good defensive right fielder who may even be passable in center field. And obviously the Twins really believe in Tosoni after drafting him twice and promoting him aggressively.

Taken alone a .271/.360/.454 line at Double-A certainly doesn't predict stardom, but Tosoni was 12th among Eastern League hitters in OPS while being younger than all but one of the guys ahead of him. His overall production was 12 percent better than the league average, which along with good defense and being young for the level of competition makes him a very solid prospect. Putting together a similar year at Triple-A could thrust Tosoni into the Twins' plans for 2011.




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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 20, 19, 18, 17, 16

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.
20. Max Kepler | Center Field | DOB: 2/93 | Bats: Left | Sign: Germany
Signed out of Germany in July just four months after his 16th birthday, Max Kepler received the largest bonus ever given to a European position player at $800,000. His parents, American-born Kathy Kepler and Polish-born Marek Rozycki, met while starring together in the Berlin ballet, leading to an intriguing upbringing for their baseball-playing son. Twins scout Andy Johnson first saw Kepler when he was 14 years old and described him running to first base "like a galloping baby deer."

After signing he came to the United States, enrolled in a Florida high school near the Twins' facilities in Fort Myers, and got his feet wet by playing in an instructional league. Kepler recently got his GED, but is still living with his mother and plans to take a few classes at a local junior college. In other words, he's a long way from the majors and may not even see full-season action until 2012. For this year he'll likely stay behind in extended spring training before making his way to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League.

Kepler is on this list almost by default because his physical tools draw rave reviews and the Twins just paid $800,000 for him as a 16-year-old, but it's tough to rate him any higher without some game action to base things on. What little we do know is that Kepler is already 6-foot-3 and said to be a very graceful athlete with good speed and some pop at the plate. Along with Miguel Angel Sano he represents a big shift in the Twins' pursuit of high-end international talent, but right now he's an expensive lottery ticket.
19. Anthony Slama | Reliever | DOB: 1/84 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2006-39

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 RK 6 0 2.45 7.1 2 0 10 1
A- 21 0 1.48 24.1 15 0 39 9
2008 A+ 51 0 1.01 71.0 43 0 110 24
2009 AA 51 0 2.48 65.1 46 5 93 32
AAA 11 0 3.45 15.2 11 0 19 8
It took until just months before his 26th birthday, but Anthony Slama was finally promoted to Rochester late last season. Clearly the Twins have little faith in the former 39th-round pick despite his absolutely incredible minor-league numbers, but his performance screams out for a chance to prove whether he can get major-league hitters out. There's nothing particularly noteworthy about Slama's raw stuff, yet in 183.2 career innings he has a 1.86 ERA and 271 strikeouts while allowing just 117 hits.

Getting his first taste of the high minors at age 25, he began last season as the closer at Double-A and converted 25 saves with a 2.48 ERA, 93 strikeouts, and .201 opponents' batting average in 65 innings. Promoted to Triple-A in August, he saved four more games while racking up 19 strikeouts and allowing just 11 hits in 15.2 innings. Slama's walk rate rose significantly last season, but nearly a quarter of his free passes were intentional. He handed out 31 non-intentional walks in 81 innings, which is just fine.

I'm certainly not going to suggest that Slama is destined for stardom, but Pat Neshek should've shown the Twins that pitchers who repeatedly put up amazing numbers in the minors despite underwhelming raw stuff can't simply be dismissed. Slama's numbers aren't merely great, they're truly spectacular, and his raw stuff is hardly horrible. If a 2.67 ERA, 112 strikeouts, and .203 opponents' batting average in 81 innings between Double-A and Triple-A aren't enough to get Slama a shot in Minnesota, it's a shame.
18. B.J. Hermsen | Starter | DOB: 12/89 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-6

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2009 RK- 10 10 1.35 53.1 32 0 42 4
B.J. Hermsen initially projected as a possible second rounder during his senior season of high school in Iowa, but a broken collarbone suffered while playing football and expectations that he'd play college ball at Oregon State dropped him into the sixth round. Eventually the Twins lured him into the pros with a $650,000 signing bonus that beat the money given to their second-round pick, and Hermsen made his debut last season in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League.

He was nearly unhittable in 10 starts, with a 1.35 ERA, 42-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .171 opponents' batting average, and zero homers allowed in 53.1 innings. He also induced a grounder on 52.5 percent of his balls in play, which is important because despite his 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame and promising velocity in high school Hermsen topped out in the low-90s last season while racking up a modest 42 strikeouts in 53.1 frames.

Of course, at just 20 years old he has plenty of time to add a few miles per hour to match his imposing presence on the mound and focusing on velocity or strikeouts is perhaps picking nits given his overall performance. Don't expect Hermsen to move all that quickly through the system, but he definitely has a very high long-term ceiling and a few more missed bats this season could propel him near the top of this list for 2011.
17. Carlos Gutierrez | Reliever | DOB: 9/86 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-1

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2008 A+ 16 0 2.10 25.2 23 0 19 7
2009 A+ 11 10 1.32 54.2 37 1 33 22
AA 22 6 6.19 52.1 62 6 32 24
Carlos Gutierrez went from the rotation to the bullpen at the University of Miami following Tommy John surgery in 2007 and became one of the best closers in the country, but when the Twins took him with the 27th overall pick in the 2008 draft they talked him up as a potential starter. That plan looked genius when Gutierrez posted a 1.32 ERA in the rotation at high Single-A, but he struggled mightily following a midseason promotion to Double-A and was shifted back to the bullpen.

He works primarily with a low-90s sinker that induces a ton of ground balls, and at the time of the draft Baseball America noted his "rudimentary" off-speed stuff, which is why few projections had him going in the first or even second round and Gutierrez's odds of sticking as a starter are slim. However, there was no real harm in letting him give starting one last try and Gutierrez can still move quickly through the system if the Twins make him a full-time reliever again this season.

His strikeout numbers have been underwhelming, which is what you'd expect from a sinkerballer with lacking secondary pitches, but Gutierrez's worm-killing ability is for real with 61.4 percent of his balls in play being grounders through 132.2 pro innings. That would've ranked as the second-best ground-ball rate in the AL last season and is enough to make Gutierrez a promising relief prospect despite sub par strikeout and walk numbers. The question is whether he can be more than a solid middle reliever.
16. Tyler Robertson | Starter | DOB: 12/87 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2006-3

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 A- 18 16 2.29 102.1 87 3 123 33
2008 A+ 15 15 2.72 82.2 78 3 73 31
2009 A+ 26 26 3.33 143.1 139 7 103 51
Tyler Robertson ranked No. 3 on this list heading into 2008, but missed half that season with shoulder problems and then was mediocre while repeating high Single-A last year. He posted a solid 3.33 ERA in 26 starts at Fort Myers, but managed just 103 strikeouts in 143.1 innings for by far the fewest missed bats of his career and allowed right-handers to hit .285 against him. The good news is that Robertson stayed healthy, throwing the seventh-most innings of any pitcher in the Twins' minor-league system.

Robertson's unorthodox throwing motion has created skeptics since the Twins made him a third-round pick in 2006, with his 2008 arm problems, inconsistent velocity, and falling strikeout rate lending further evidence that the left-hander's mechanics are a legitimate issue. On the other hand he has a 3.03 ERA as a pro and will likely begin this season at Double-A as a 22-year-old, so Robertson remains a plenty good prospect despite the issues dragging his stock down over the past two years.

More than half of Robertson's balls in play have been on the ground every season and he's been death to left-handed hitters, holding them to a .197 batting average with zero home runs last year and a .210 mark for his career. Ground balls and shutting down lefties make it likely that Robertson can transition nicely to the bullpen if concerns about his durability and struggles against righties continue, but for now he definitely still has a chance to develop into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.




Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


Monday, February 15, 2010

Twins Notes: Perkins, Morales, Butera, and Snow

  • Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune penned a lengthy, well-done article detailing Glen Perkins' strained relationship with the Twins stemming from his arm injury and the team's subsequent service-time shenanigans. While the two sides officially settled the grievance filed on Perkins' behalf by the players' union, the 25-year-old left-hander is clearly still upset about the whole thing costing him as much as $500,000 and sounds like someone who expects to be traded:
    I guess I really found out the hard way that it's a business. I spent my life cheering for that team. I got drafted by them and got to the majors quick, and two weeks later we're in the playoffs. I had a really good year in '08, and everything was rosy. You find out the hard way that it doesn't really matter.

    I think I'm more prepared for this year than I ever have been. I feel like I'm going into an uphill battle [for a roster spot], but I'm fine. My arm's healthy, and I feel like I'm a major league pitcher. I'm sure if they don't think that, then someone else does.
    I'm hardly plugged into the Twins' front office, but have heard from multiple sources "with knowledge of the situation" (as reporters so often phrase it) that the team is basically just waiting for Perkins to show that he's healthy this spring before trading him. Perkins simply isn't good enough for the combination of injuries, inconsistent performance, and an off-field grievance not to cause a team to sour on him and the Twins apparently tried to trade him to the Padres for Kevin Kouzmanoff earlier this offseason.


  • Last week the Twins had to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Orlando Hudson, and presumably one of the reasons for dropping Jason Pridie rather than Drew Butera is that Jose Morales sounds less and less likely to be ready for Opening Day following wrist surgery. Morales began experiencing wrist problems in September, but waited until last month before deciding on surgery and then for some reason delayed actually going under the knife for another two weeks.

    At best he'll be cleared to resume baseball activities in mid-March and even a slight setback would rule him out for Opening Day, so the Twins will likely need a third catcher to begin the season. Butera was seemingly placed on the 40-man roster for just this type of situation and the Twins previously talked him up as a great defender behind the plate, but now LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports that "there are some concerns about Butera's catching skills."

    Butera has hit .214/.296/.317 in the minors, including .211/.268/.292 in 99 games at Triple-A last year, so if his "catching skills" are anything less than amazing he's essentially a worthless player. His place on the 40-man roster was a mistake to begin with and now the Twins are hesitant to even let him fill in for Morales, with Ron Gardenhire beginning to stump for Wilson Ramos. Butera is awful, but I'd hate to interrupt Ramos' development and start his service time just to back up Joe Mauer for a couple weeks.


  • Early on this offseason there was speculation about the Twins re-signing Orlando Cabrera, mostly because Gardenhire repeatedly made it obvious that he'd love to have him back. Instead the front office dealt for J.J. Hardy to replace him at shortstop and then signed Hudson to start at second base, which is the only other position Cabrera has played. Cabrera ended up signing with the Reds for a one-year deal that guarantees him $3 million and includes a mutual option for 2011. Twins were smart to pass.


  • Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs wrote an intriguing article about Mauer's unique, opposite field-driven hit chart and suggests that teams should employ separate infield and outfield shifts to neutralize him.


  • Whoever runs the Twins' official Twitter account posted two photos of a snow-covered Target Field:


    Click the picture to see the full-sized versions. I bet at least half that snow will be gone by Opening Day.


  • Unfortunately my day job precluded me from actually being involved in the project, but that won't stop me from recommending that anyone who likes this blog should get the recently released Twins Annual 2010 from Maple Street Press. I've previously worked with Maple Street Press on a couple of non-Twins publications and know that they always put out high-quality products, and their inaugural Twins offering is spearheaded by John Bonnes and features a great writing lineup from the blogosphere and beyond.

    In addition to the Twins Geek, the list of contributors also includes Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, Phil Miller, Howard Sinker, Parker Hageman, Phil Mackey, Darren Wolfson, Judd Spicer, Josh Johnson, Stew Thornley, Jim Thielman, Andrew Kneeland, Dan Wade, and Adam Peterson. You get 128 pages full of great Twins writing, full-color photographs, and top-notch design work for just $12.99, all while helping to support a blogosphere that churns out so much great content for absolutely free all year. Go buy it.




  • Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Friday, February 12, 2010

    Link-O-Rama

  • It was fun while it lasted, but apparently I'm no longer cool.


  • HitFix.com's Daniel Fienberg wrote a slew of lengthy, excellent essays celebrating the best television shows of the past decade. If you're as into great TV as me, I'd suggest starting at his No. 1 show and then working your way through the whole series.


  • If you only read one story today about an MLB player's grandfather starting a drunken brawl with cops by groping an NBA player's wife, make it this one. You're welcome.


  • I'm not normally apt to pick on my fellow fatsos, but this could be my only opportunity to actually look good compared to an NFL first-round pick.


  • I'm worried that the unique stipulations in Ronnie Belliard's new contract with the Dodgers may give NBCSports.com and Rotoworld some ideas.


  • I'm not sure we're totally ready for him, but Mini Daddy is about to take over the music world:


    You know a video is good when you can't understand a single word and don't care one bit.


  • I'm not sure how to explain it, but this absurd "day in the life" of former Red Sox backup catcher Doug Mirabelli really cracked me up.


  • Public service announcement: One of the most underrated television shows ever, The Larry Sanders Show, is now available on Hulu. Hey now!


  • And if you're already a The Larry Sanders Show fan, then this story will make you sad.


  • Rotoworld got a couple nice shout-outs recently. Peter Gammons told SI.com that "there are some people with great thoughts and minds writing for Rotoworld" and Cardinals pitcher Blake Hawksworth described how he "got on Rotoworld" to learn of the team re-signing Matt Holliday.


  • Speaking of Rotoworld, our annual Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available. I'm the editor, and along with Matthew Pouliot, Drew Silva, D.J. Short, and several other writers spent an insane amount of time working on the product for the past couple months, so if you're a fantasy baseball player please consider checking it out. Just last week we received the "Best Online Draft Kit" award from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, so it'll definitely be worth the money and also keeps me employed.


  • Some unfortunate news about the Mad Men cast for the upcoming season, although staring at these pictures will probably wipe it from your memory.


  • Three words: Ron. F***ing. Swanson:


    And it's reassuring to see that even in real life he's "a simple man who likes pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food." Words to live by. And maybe even die for.


  • Grant Desme has me thinking about quitting this whole writing thing for rabbinical school.


  • As if the combination of a post-apocalyptic wasteland and a longtime Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com candidate didn't put The Book of Eli far enough into my wheelhouse, one of the early scenes featured Denzel Washington listening to Al Green. Only the lack of Chinese food and Joe Mauer kept the movie from essentially being custom-made for me and the whole thing was visually stunning, but somehow it just missed being a great move. I'd instead call it good, hugely enjoyable, and intriguing. Grade: B.


  • While the film falls just short of being great the aforementioned Mila Kunis gets an A-plus, because in addition to looking fantastic she did a very nice job with kind of an odd role. She's been on the Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com short list for quite a while now and seeing The Book of Eli may have convinced me that she's ready for the throne, although a couple new contenders have emerged lately. I'll get into that further next week, but for now you can study Kunis' case here and here and here.


  • Kunis may be gaining on her, but reigning Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com Keeley Hazell won't give up the title without a fight.


  • Friend of AG.com and former KFAN radio personality Doogie Wolfson has landed a new gig working with Joe Schmit at the local ABC affiliate. Always nice when good stuff happens to good people.


  • Speaking of KFAN, they may finally have competition in the local sports radio scene after yesterday's announcement that KSTP-1500 is becoming an ESPN affiliate. Unfortunately it sounds like the shift to all-sports mostly just means adding a bunch of syndicated ESPN shows rather than new local voices, with the bulk of KSTP's in-house programming still consisting of Patrick Reusse and Joe Soucheray.


  • Earlier this week a college student e-mailed to inquire about an internship. I'm thinking about doing it, Kramerica-style:


    Think how much better my blogging could be with an actual chicken.


  • The highlight of my week: Dennis Scott sent me a message on Twitter. To celebrate, I watched this.


  • Vikings play-by-play man Paul Allen got kind of worked up announcing Brett Favre's interception.


  • When he's not busy designing the banner for this blog, Dan Olson is getting back on the mound after an 11-year hiatus in the hopes of impressing at an MLB tryout camp.


  • In ranking the 10 best "parents' basements" among baseball bloggers, Sam Hutcheson pretty much nailed my living conditions.


  • Some of the highlights from my NBCSports.com blogging this week:

    - Dykstra is back, with some more can't-miss investment advice
    - Another sad 'Dykstra on investing' update
    - Chipper and McCann think Heyward is ready
    - Indians may give rookie Brantley a shot in left
    - Yankees find their platoon bat in Thames
    - Erstad may have made his last scrappy out
    - Shields unlikely to be ready for spring training
    - SABR is giving away a free baseball book


  • Finally, in honor of Stephon Marbury being washed-up enough to have access to all the tea in China this week's AG.com-approved music video is Richie Havens covering "Tupelo Honey" by Van Morrison:





  • Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Wednesday, February 10, 2010

    Twins Waive Jason Pridie, Sign Jacque Jones

    Forced to clear a spot on the 40-man roster after signing Orlando Hudson last week, the Twins waived Jason Pridie and lost him to a claim by the Mets yesterday. Someone in the front office was a big Pridie fan because the Twins actually acquired him twice, first as a Rule 5 pick in December of 2005 and then as part of the Matt Garza-for-Delmon Young swap with Tampa Bay in November of 2007. Unfortunately, for all his supposed tools Pridie just never showed that he could hit even Double-A or Triple-A pitching.

    He hit .248/.297/.360 in 231 games at Double-A and .277/.315/.434 in 322 games at Triple-A, including an abysmal .265/.295/.382 with an 85-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 121 games at Rochester last year. Pridie logged over 2,300 plate appearances between the two levels, and per 150 games struck out 122 times compared to just 31 non-intentional walks. Toss in modest power and he just wasn't going to be a valuable big leaguer despite having good speed and a strong glove.

    Pridie had been atop the Twins' list of possible fifth outfielders, but that was almost by default and guys with his basic skill set and utility will be available on waivers or minor-league contracts from now until Opening Day (and perhaps from now until the end of time). In fact, as soon as Pridie was claimed off waivers by the Mets yesterday the Twins announced that they'd signed another potential fifth outfielder to a minor-league deal: Jacque Jones. Yes, that Jacque Jones.

    Two months ago Jones personally attended the winter meetings in the hopes of talking someone into giving him a comeback opportunity at age 35, but he predictably found that to be a tough sell. Jones left the Twins as a free agent after the 2005 season and was last a reasonably productive player in 2007, batting .285/.335/.400 for the Cubs. He fell off a cliff in 2008, hitting .147 in 42 games for the Tigers and Marlins, and spent last season playing for the independent league Newark Bears.

    While the Twins could certainly use a fifth outfielder capable of backing up Denard Span in center field, the odds of a 35-year-old Jones fitting that bill seem slim given that he's three seasons removed from playing the position regularly or holding his own versus big-league pitching. Toss in the fact that Jones was nearly useless against left-handed pitching even in his prime and it's tough to see him fitting into an outfield/designated hitter mix that already includes lefty bats Span, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome.

    Jones' contract includes an invitation to spring training, but the Twins have indicated that he's unlikely to make the team and has already agreed to report to Triple-A if not on the Opening Day roster. There's no real harm in letting him come to camp and giving Jones one last chance to salvage his career with a stint at Rochester may not even be such a bad idea depending on how the minor-league depth chart shakes out, but they can do better in even the most rudimentary search for a fifth outfielder.

    In terms of best fitting the roster ideally the job calls for a right-handed bat (or switch-hitter) with a good glove and plus speed, experience in all three outfield spots, and some semblance of either power or on-base skills. Pridie and Jones fail that description on multiple levels, but there's no urgency to find a better fit and in fact waiting until the end of spring training could yield the best results once teams start trying to slip guys through waivers. Or they could just trust Nick Punto to handle center field in a pinch.




    Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Monday, February 08, 2010

    Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 25, 24, 23, 22, 21

    Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.
    25. Deolis Guerra | Starter | DOB: 4/89 | Throws: Right | Trade: Mets

    YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
    2007 A+ 21 20 4.01 89.2 80 9 66 25
    2008 A+ 26 25 5.47 130.0 138 12 71 71
    2009 A+ 16 15 4.69 86.1 95 6 57 25
    AA 12 11 5.17 62.2 62 4 49 17
    When the Twins got Deolis Guerra from the Mets two offseasons ago he was considered arguably the highest-upside prospect in the four-player package for Johan Santana. At the time he was 18 years old with a 3.27 ERA, 135-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .228 opponents' batting average in 179 innings at Single-A, which along with his 6-foot-5 frame, plus fastball, fantastic changeup, and high ground-ball rate seemingly gave him a huge ceiling. Unfortunately he's been a mess ever since.

    Because the Mets pushed Guerra so aggressively prior to the trade the Twins sent him back to high Single-A as a 19-year-old in 2008 when they normally would have had him in rookie-ball with the other teenagers. He struggled there, posting a 5.47 ERA and 71-to-71 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130 innings, and was back at high Single-A for a third stint to begin last year. The third time wasn't exactly a charm for Guerra, but the Twins promoted him to Double-A at midseason anyway and he struggled there too.

    Guerra is still the third-youngest pitcher on this list at 21 years old, but has a 5.16 ERA and 177-to-113 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 279 innings since the trade while seeing his velocity drop into the 80s and his grounders turn into fly balls. No one seems quite sure how to explain the decline in his stuff, but right now he looks like anything but a high-ceiling prospect and realistically should be spending 2010 at low Single-A rather than Double-A, where he'll be by far the youngest guy and take up a 40-man roster spot.
    24. Ben Tootle | Reliever | DOB: 1/88 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2009-3

    YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
    2009 RK 6 0 0.00 6.1 4 0 1 2
    Ben Tootle had limited success as a college starter against modest competition at Jacksonville State, but his performance last year can perhaps be blamed on a stomach virus that caused him to lose 20 pounds and the Twins liked his raw stuff enough to make him the No. 101 overall pick last June. Tootle started 43 games compared to just one relief outing in college, but his pro debut came in the bullpen at rookie-level Elizabethton and that figures to be his long-term role.

    Much like with fellow 2009 draftee Billy Bullock the Twins are hoping to take Tootle's mid-90s fastball and mold him into a late-inning reliever, although various reports suggest that his slider has the ability to be a plus pitch eventually as well. If that happens he has a chance to be pretty overpowering, but for now Tootle just has a half-dozen pro innings under his belt following a three-year college career that included a 4.83 ERA in the Ohio Valley Conference.

    Prior to last season's health problems Baseball America ranked Tootle as the fourth-best prospect in the Cape Cod summer league and he went 10-2 with a 3.87 ERA and 79-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86 innings during his sophomore year at Jacksonville State, so certainly his radar-gun readings aren't the sole reason to like Tootle's upside. Rarely have the Twins targeted power arms with questionable command, so it'll be interesting to see if they were right to adjust that strategy for Bullock and Tootle.
    23. Luke Hughes | Third Base | DOB: 8/84 | Bats: Right | Sign: Australia

    YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
    2007 AA 362 .283 .356 .438 9 29 34 68
    2008 AA 319 .319 .385 .551 15 33 28 70
    AAA 117 .283 .325 .453 3 11 7 30
    2009 AA 229 .250 .320 .445 6 24 19 38
    AAA 157 .259 .344 .481 6 16 18 38
    Luke Hughes struggled in the low minors after being signed out of Australia as an 18-year-old in 2002, but has hit well enough since advancing to Double-A in 2007 that his bat looks like a possible asset in the majors. Unfortunately his glove is another issue, with Hughes bouncing from second base to third base while also seeing time as a corner outfielder. At the plate he's been close to Danny Valencia, but whereas Valencia projects as a decent third baseman Hughes seems destined to wind up in left field.

    Even setting aside his uncertain future defensively he's far from a finished product offensively. Hughes has shown very good power at Double-A and Triple-A, but has drawn a grand total of just 106 walks in 1,184 plate appearances between the two levels while striking out 20 percent of the time. He hit just .250 at New Britain and .257 at Rochester last year, dropping his career mark to .270. Hughes' power is good enough to get him to the majors, but weak secondary skills may limit him to part-time work.

    Even if the Twins were willing to live with Hughes' glove at third base Valencia is clearly ahead of him on the position's long-term depth chart, so he'll almost certainly head back to Triple-A and may need an injury to Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, or Jim Thome to get a shot for a call-up as a bat to plug into the lineup at a spot where his defense won't be an issue. Hughes has a chance to be a useful player, but his many flaws make him look like a poor man's Ty Wigginton.
    22. Robert Delaney | Reliever | DOB: 9/84 | Throws: Right | Sign: America

    YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
    2007 A- 36 0 0.77 46.2 25 1 56 6
    A+ 17 0 1.54 23.1 19 1 27 10
    2008 A+ 23 0 1.42 31.2 24 1 34 4
    AA 23 0 1.05 34.1 20 2 38 7
    2009 AA 26 0 2.00 36.0 32 1 40 6
    AAA 36 0 4.53 47.2 43 5 38 15
    Robert Delaney went into last year with a 1.91 ERA and 185-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 174 innings as a pro, including a 1.05 ERA in 23 appearances at Double-A to finish 2008, yet the Twins had such little trust in the former undrafted free agent that they sent him back to New Britain to begin last season. Delaney logged another 36 innings there with a 2.00 ERA and 40-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, at which point they finally promoted him to Triple-A just months before his 25th birthday.

    For the first time in his career Delaney was something less than spectacular with a 4.53 ERA over 47.2 innings at Rochester, including several really ugly outings, but a .240 opponents' batting average and 38-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggest that it was more rough patch than proof of being overmatched. Of course, in either case the Twins were already skeptical enough of Delaney's upside that he'll likely need to post a sub-2.00 ERA just to be an option for a call-up in the second half.

    Delaney is a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering raw stuff, so keeping the ball in the ballpark figures to be an issue, but his combination of a low-90s fastball and sharp slider has racked up 263 strikeouts in 257.2 career innings. He's not going to be a dominant reliever and is even less likely than fellow slowly promoted prospect Anthony Slama to emerge as a viable late-inning option, but Delaney's track record suggests that he can be a solid middle reliever at worst and he deserves a chance to prove it soon.
    21. Alex Burnett | Reliever | DOB: 7/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2005-12

    YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
    2007 A- 27 27 3.02 155.0 140 9 117 38
    2008 A+ 28 25 3.76 143.2 151 12 84 36
    2009 A+ 18 0 1.99 22.2 14 0 26 7
    AA 40 0 1.79 55.1 36 2 52 19
    A full-time starter for the first four seasons of his pro career, Alex Burnett ranked No. 22 on this list last year despite declining strikeout rates because of consistent success while being young for each level. He was shaping up to be a potential middle-of-the-rotation starter down the road, but instead the Twins moved him to the bullpen last season and watched as he dominated in 58 appearances between high Single-A and Double-A as a 21-year-old.

    He whiffed 78 batters in 78 innings after totaling just 84 strikeouts in 143.2 innings as a starter in 2008, holding opponents to a .183 batting average while issuing 2.5 non-intentional walks per nine innings. History is filled with mediocre starters who became dominant relievers, but making the move at age 21 is relatively uncommon, especially since Burnett seemed on the path to the majors anyway with a 3.54 ERA as a starter.

    Rather than looking like a fourth or fifth starter Burnett now has the potential to be a late-inning reliever, and moving to the bullpen has also pushed up his timetable considerably. Not only did he have a 1.79 ERA and .187 opponents' batting average at Double-A, of the 110 pitchers logging at least 50 innings in the Eastern League last season only three were younger than Burnett. His control has always been outstanding, so if relief work adds some velocity to his fastball-slider combo Burnett can move quickly.




    Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Friday, February 05, 2010

    Twins Sign Orlando Hudson To One-Year Deal

    I'm sometimes accused of being overly critical of the Twins' front office, but my response is usually that it can't help but look that way when my "job" here is to analyze and give opinions about their moves and the "bad" have simply outnumbered the "good" since Terry Ryan stepped down as general manager in September of 2007. In other words, Bill Smith's first 18 months on the job just didn't feature a whole lot of moves to praise.

    He dealt Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, got a mediocre return for Johan Santana, and gave out millions to Craig Monroe, Livan Hernandez, Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Juan Rincon, and Luis Ayala. Was every move a bad one? Of course not, but the entire body of work was pretty damn ugly and I said so as the moves rolled in, without the benefit of hindsight, which understandably comes across as "overly critical" at times. But thankfully, times have changed.

    Smith's second season on the job was sort of a mixed bag, but certainly included several moves worth praising, and this offseason the front office has basically been flawless from trading for J.J. Hardy and signing Jim Thome to retaining Carl Pavano and letting Orlando Cabrera leave. And now the icing on the offseason cake is inking Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million deal, which in addition to simply being a very good move is also something that I've long been campaigning for in this space.

    Operating under the assumption that Ron Gardenhire will do everything he can to play Punto regularly somewhere, the Twins' early moves left them with essentially one lineup opening at either second or third base. Gardenhire's tendency to use a speedy infielder as his No. 2 hitter also made it likely that one of the two guys playing those positions would slide into the lineup between Denard Span and Joe Mauer. Hudson capably checks both boxes as a good all-around second baseman and nice No. 2 bat.

    Last year Twins second basemen ranked dead last in all of baseball with a combined .209/.302/.267 line, so Hudson's career .281/.348/.431 mark represents a massive upgrade and his adjusted OPS+ has actually improved in four straight seasons despite the fact that he turned 32 years old this winter. He doesn't really stand out in any one area offensively, but per 150 games Hudson usually bats around .285 with 10 homers, 50 total extra-base hits, 60 walks, and 5-10 steals. He's just a good, solid player.

    Among guys who played at least 100 games at second base Hudson's adjusted OPS+ ranked 9th, 7th, 13th, and 7th during the past four seasons, so even accounting for some potential age-related decline he's likely to be among the position's top 10 hitters in 2010. He's posted an on-base percentage above .350 in each of those four seasons and is a switch-hitter with similar production from either side of the plate, both of which make him a particularly good fit in the No. 2 spot.

    Hudson teams with Span to put two strong on-base threats directly in front of the lineup's big boppers and also provides a potential right-handed bat in the midst of lefties Span, Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel. He also gives the Twins a pretty decent chance to have above-average hitting from eight of the nine spots in the lineup, with only third base looking like a clear weak spot (assuming that Hardy bounces back). Of course, while a very good fit for the Twins at $5 million Hudson still has some flaws.

    Defensively he has an excellent reputation built by winning four Gold Gloves in the past five years, but a look at some advanced metrics suggests that his range began slipping around age 28. Ultimate Zone Rating pegged Hudson as right about average defensively in both 2006 and 2007 before falling to five runs below average per 150 games between 2008-2009. In other words we'll constantly hear praise for Hudson's glove this season, but given his age and UZR numbers he's likely to be average at best.

    Another potential problem area is Hudson's high ground-ball rate. He had the fourth-most grounders in baseball last year at 56 percent and is at 50 percent for his career, which along with good but not great speed and Span constantly being on first base could equal a ton of double plays. He's hit into a DP in 16.5 percent of his DP chances over the past three years. To put that in context Mauer is often criticized for frequent double plays, yet has done so in only 12.4 percent of his DP chances during that time.

    So he's fairly old, not as good as his reputation defensively, and likely to hit into a bunch of DPs batting second, but let's be very clear: Hudson is an excellent acquisition in an offseason full of sound moves and represents a massive all-around upgrade over the various options the Twins could have trotted out at second base. Smith, Rob Antony, and the rest of the front office deserved any criticism they received for their 18 months on the job and now they deserve credit for what has been a fantastic offseason.




    Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Thursday, February 04, 2010

    Twins Close to Signing Orlando Hudson?

    I'll have a full breakdown of the deal if/when things become official, but in the meantime click here.




    Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Wednesday, February 03, 2010

    Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26

    Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 31-35, 36-40.
    30. Estarlin De Los Santos | Shortstop | DOB: 1/87 | Bats: Switch | Sign: D.R.

    YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
    2007 RK 322 .264 .341 .363 1 20 26 66
    2008 A- 269 .242 .304 .309 2 9 19 55
    2009 A+ 284 .290 .330 .397 1 19 13 49
    Signed by the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as an 18-year-old in 2005, Estarlin De Los Santos was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft in December. He played last year at high Single-A and managed just a .727 OPS there, making it unlikely that any team would have been willing to keep him in the majors for all of 2010, but clearly the Twins like De Los Santos enough to not take the minimal chance of losing him.

    De Los Santos' glove is definitely the big draw, because he had a career-year offensively in 2009 and still hit just .290/.330/.397 with one homer and a 49-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio while being limited to 68 games with multiple injuries. For his career he's batted .259/.322/.347 in 227 games, but Twins vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff recently described him as "the only true shortstop we have in our system" with "a plus arm and plus hands."

    His defensive reputation alone was nearly enough for De Los Santos to crack this list in both 2008 and 2009, so now that he's shown some semblance of offensive potential it's an easy call. Great glove or not he'll obviously need to improve at the plate to be an asset in the majors and the Twins sending him to Double-A as a 23-year-old is a sign that they think his switch-hitting gap power and excellent speed will eventually equal more production.
    29. Reggie Williams | Second Base | DOB: 10/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2007-4

    YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
    2008 RK- 96 .286 .358 .440 0 10 9 10
    2009 RK 173 .250 .316 .462 7 17 13 30
    Picked out of a California high school in the fourth round of the 2007 draft, Reggie Williams signed too late to debut that year and then played only briefly in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2008. Still on the conservative path last season, Williams played 43 games at rookie-level Elizabethton before going 6-for-10 with two doubles and two walks in three games following an end-of-the-year promotion to low Single-A Beloit.

    Williams has logged a grand total of just 281 plate appearances in three years since being drafted, but his performance has been very encouraging for a player who was supposed to be all about raw tools and athleticism at the time. He's batted .276 with 29 extra-base hits and a .468 slugging percentage in 69 games spent in pitcher-friendly environments while showing decent plate discipline and strike-zone control with a 42-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

    Along with that offensive promise Williams has played all three infield spots defensively after originally being drafted as a shortstop, suggesting that his glove could also have considerable value down the road. Williams should see his first full-season action in 2010 as a 21-year-old and a solid campaign at Single-A would make the Twins spending $153,000 to lure him away from Cal-State Fullerton look like a great decision. In a system that's perpetually short on quality infielders, he's very intriguing.
    28. Michael McCardell | Starter | DOB: 4/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2007-6

    YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
    2007 RK- 4 2 2.50 18.0 11 2 25 3
    RK 8 8 2.00 45.0 29 3 70 5
    2008 A- 22 21 2.86 135.1 110 10 139 25
    2009 A+ 17 17 3.93 94.0 98 10 78 16
    AA 9 9 4.10 48.1 45 4 40 16
    Michael McCardell dominated at rookie-ball and low Single-A after being drafted in the sixth round out of Kutztown University in 2007, but my worry last year at this time was that modest raw stuff made him "no sure thing to clear the high-minors hurdles." Sure enough his performance deteriorated splitting last season between high Single-A and Double-A, with a 3.98 ERA as an older-than-average pitcher in offense-suppressing environments that included just 118 strikeouts versus 143 hits in 142 innings.

    McCardell's control remained excellent with 32 walks in 596 plate appearances, but the mostly younger opponents batted .264 against him and he had a difficult time keeping the ball on the ground. Throwing strikes should keep McCardell on the prospect radar, but as a fly-ball pitcher with a high-80s fastball who doesn't miss many bats his long-term upside is limited and he'll turn 25 years old in April despite making a total of just nine starts above Single-A.

    Because of his small-school pedigree and pinpoint control McCardell has sometimes been compared to Kevin Slowey, but Slowey's numbers in the minors were mind-boggling good at every level and he's already logged over 300 innings in the majors despite being less than a year older than McCardell. In reality McCardell's upside is likely closer to someone like Josh Towers, which is to say a serviceable but very hittable fifth starter or long reliever. Hopefully he'll get his first crack at Triple-A this year.
    27. Trevor Plouffe | Shortstop | DOB: 6/86 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2004-1

    YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
    2007 AA 555 .274 .326 .410 9 48 38 89
    2008 AA 249 .269 .325 .410 3 23 16 43
    AAA 272 .256 .292 .420 6 26 14 47
    2009 AAA 477 .260 .313 .407 10 38 34 68
    Trevor Plouffe had been promoted very aggressively since the Twins took him out of high school in the first round of the 2004 draft, but pushing him through the system despite the lack of any major offensive development now leaves him as a 24-year-old about to spend a third straight season at Rochester. He has six seasons under his belt, including 1,553 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, yet has never posted even a .750 OPS at any level and owns a .256/.318/.385 career line.

    His production has been remarkably consistent in its mediocrity, with zero real strides made in any key areas, and Plouffe's lack of progress at the plate is especially damaging because he's no sure thing to be an asset defensively at shortstop. His glove gets mixed reviews and while Plouffe played exclusively shortstop last year the Twins used him at third base extensively in 2008. If he's not at least an average defensive shortstop in the majors it's tough to see Plouffe having much value.

    Plouffe is certainly still young enough for something to click offensively, but as the Twins saw with Luis Rivas and could be seeing with Delmon Young at some point actual production takes precedence over youth. He's about to enter his seventh professional season and fourth straight year in the high minors, but aside from his age and status as a former first-round pick Plouffe has shown almost no reason for optimism. My guess is that by this time next year he'll either be in the majors or off the 40-man roster.
    26. Shooter Hunt | Starter | DOB: 8/86 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-1

    YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
    2008 RK 4 4 0.47 19.0 4 0 34 6
    A- 7 7 5.46 31.1 26 2 34 27
    2009 RK- 7 5 9.60 15.0 10 0 8 25
    A- 7 5 10.70 17.2 15 1 18 33
    Sadly, those numbers aren't a misprint. Normally the Twins don't target pitchers with poor control, but they couldn't pass up the chance to draft Shooter Hunt when he fell to them with the No. 31 overall pick in 2008. Baseball America ranked Hunt as the draft's No. 4 pitcher after a dominant season at Tulane University and he blew away rookie-ball hitters upon signing, but he had a tough time throwing strikes following a promotion to low Single-A and then completely fell apart last year.

    Hunt's control wasn't great in college and in ranking him as the Twins' fifth-best prospect heading into last year I wrote that "learning to harness his raw stuff will be the biggest challenge," but no one could have predicted a potentially career-wrecking descent into Rick Ankiel, Mark Wohlers, and Steve Blass territory. Hunt simply couldn't throw the ball over the plate, issuing 58 walks, uncorking 15 wild pitches, and plunking seven batters in 32.2 innings between rookie-ball and low Single-A.

    When he's right Hunt has top-of-the-rotation stuff and the Twins were very fortunate that he fell into their laps on draft day, but history suggests that he'd have been better off blowing out his elbow or shoulder and missing a couple years rather than trying to come back from a debilitating case of the yips. Right now his 2010 season should be considered a success if Hunt can simply show some semblance of command, regardless of whether he gets knocked around in the process.




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