I went to a concert last night and am officially buying a house today--perhaps handing over a very large check and being handed the keys as you're reading this very sentence--so you'll have to forgive me if this week's Link-O-Rama isn't quite as plentiful as usual ...

If you liked Mike Redmond and his naked batting practice, you'll absolutely love Brian Giles and his naked comedy.

Despite the fact that he plays for one of the Twins' division rivals, Curtis Granderson has quickly become one of my favorite players (and one of my favorite bloggers).

As a Frank Thomas fan from way back, I enjoyed this note about Japanese pitcher Masumi Kuwata from the Pittsburgh Tribune Review:

Kuwata did a double-take when designated hitter Frank Thomas dug in at the plate. Kuwata is 5-foot-10. The "Big Hurt" stands 6-5, 275 pounds. "When I pitched to him, he was terrifying," Kuwata said. "He looked like an elephant."

It sort of ruins the story, but Kuwata "got Thomas on a weak grounder."

Soccer star Diego Maradona was hospitalized recently due to what is being called "excessive eating and drinking," which immediately takes over for "buy a house" as the No. 1 thing on my to-do list.

If you only see one movie this year, make it Adam Sandler and Kevin James starring in the sure-fire blockbuster Jessica Biel In Her Underwear.

I'll be posting my official season predictions here Monday, but if you can't wait that long or would rather get the predictions in video form, you can watch me on NBCSports.com's "Fantasy Fix" season preview show with Tiffany Simons and Gregg Rosenthal. I'm not sure if I'm just finally getting more comfortable with the whole call-in thing or the show's loose format worked well, but the final product turned out great this week and I got a lot of compliments from my bosses, so check it out.

Who knew that the state of Minnesota had so many nerds who like baseball? Incidentally, I'm 24 years old and dropped out of school, despite what the otherwise-solid article about Victor Wang and Gross Production Average would have you believe.

I'm confident that the man behind Twins Junkie, Trevor Born, will have a whole lot more success than I did with the "go to the University of Minnesota, get into the journalism school, and write for the Minnesota Daily" career path. As I wrote back in January, "At this point, my best chance for landing a newspaper gig might involve waiting a couple decades until Born is the editor-in-chief somewhere and hoping he remembers me." At his current rate, it'll be a couple years rather than a couple decades.

When it comes to Torii Hunter, Emil Brown apparently hasn't been reading this blog.

I'm probably a little too excited about this development, but the possibilities are pretty amazing. Plus, the bigger mixed martial arts gets as a sport and the more coverage NBCSports.com gives it, the better chance there is that I'll end up octagon-side at a fight one of these days.

In case anyone is curious, James Morrison's concert at the 400 Bar last night was excellent. He sounded every bit as good as his album and even tossed in a nice cover version of Van Morrison's "It Stoned Me." It was great to see him perform at such a small venue and, considering he's from England and not particularly well known in America, I was shocked by the number of people singing along and the number of girls screaming at seemingly random intervals.

My cousin Annie, who had never heard Morrison before last night, thought he was good, but suggested that he needs some work on between-song banter. I agree, because between mumbling into the mic and a heavy Warwickshire accent he sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher. Interestingly, one of the few words of banter that I heard clearly was this one. Oh, and much like Morrison's banter, Annie wants the world to know that the bartender she chatted with at the 400 Bar "lacks substance."

She doubted that I'd print that here, but she was wrong.

As expected, the Twins were forced to place J.D. Durbin on waivers yesterday because of his lack of minor-league options and the Diamondbacks claimed him. The likelihood of that taking place is why I ranked Durbin as the Twins' No. 37 prospect back in February, while Baseball America (somewhat inexplicably, in my opinion) ranked him No. 10. I'm not particularly upset about losing Durbin, but it's an interesting move given who the Twins decided to give the final roster spot to instead.

Remember the whole Corky Miller fiasco from a couple years ago? As with seemingly every other mistake they've ever made, the Twins have decided to ignore any lessons they may have learned from the experience, change the names involved, and let history repeat itself. Much like losing Durbin for nothing, carrying a third catcher isn't a huge mistake--especially considering Joe Mauer's recent injury scare--but it's another example of questionable decision-making when it comes to roster construction.

If you ever find yourself with about 10 hours to kill, I highly recommend watching the first 20 episodes of Arrested Development in a row.

They don't have a Twins version yet, but Maple Street Press has published a series of team-specific, high-end magazines previewing the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and Detroit Tigers. Each version includes a ton of excellent content produced by some big-name writers and the presentation is second-to-none. (Full disclosure: Last year I contributed to MSP's annuals on the Red Sox and Notre Dame football, but my contract with NBCSports.com precludes me from doing so now.)

Howard Sinker of the Minneapolis Star Tribune has set up a blog-sponsored get-together for Twins fans on Saturday, April 7. I'll be there, as will Sinker, John Bonnes, Will Young, Trevor Born, Nick Nelson, and Nick Mosvick, and a couple other Twins bloggers may be in attendance too. It should be a fun time, whether you're interested in meeting some of us bloggers or simply want to watch the Twins play the White Sox with a bunch of other Twins fans. Here are the details:

Who: Sinker, Gleeman, Bonnes, Young, Born, Nelson, Mosvick, multiple Bloggers to be Named Later, and various other Twins fans and blog readers.

What: Eat, drink, be merry, watch Twins beat White Sox.

Where: Buffalo Wild Wings in Crystal (5590 West Broadway, to be exact).

When: Saturday, April 7, at 2:30 p.m.

Why: Because previous get-togethers have been a lot of fun and good attendance at this one means we can justify doing more of them in the future.

That's it from me for this week, but not only is Monday Opening Day--seriously, Monday is Opening Day--if things go according to plan I'll be blogging about Johan Santana shutting down the Orioles from The House That Blog Built.

As expected, the Twins sent Matt Garza to Triple-A yesterday and handed the final spot in the starting rotation to Carlos Silva. Silva pitched horribly last season and was even worse this spring, while Garza is one of the elite pitching prospects in all of baseball and was fantastic in Fort Myers this month. The Twins' decision had nothing to do with any of that, however. Instead, Silva received a spot in the rotation because the Twins decided back in November to guarantee him $4.35 million this season.

A mistake five months ago essentially locked them into a bad decision yesterday, and now three-fifths of the rotation consists of Silva, Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson, who combined to go 26-36 with a 5.84 ERA in 2006. After each of the many times I've written something similar over the past few months, I've gotten comments along the lines of: "What's the big deal? The Twins can always ditch them and bring up the prospects." While technically true, that line of thinking ignores several key points.

First, games played in April and May count as much as games played in August and September. The Twins dug themselves out of a deep hole last year, but planning to do the same every season is hardly a successful strategy. The AL Central may contain four of the 10 best teams in baseball this year, and the Twins will almost certainly need every win they can get. Under very few scenarios does going with the likes of Silva, Ortiz, and Ponson mean maximizing a team's chances of winning games.

Beyond that, ditching some combination of Silva, Ponson, and Ortiz won't be nearly as easy as ditching Juan Castro and Tony Batista was last year. Castro and Batista dragged the team down for one-third of the season, but ultimately cost the Twins about three percent of the payroll, which is an easy pill to swallow. The Twins can certainly choose to eat the salaries of Silva and Ortiz much the same way, but this time they'll be wasting over 10 percent of the payroll.

At this point you can throw a rock and hit a Twins fan who's upset about the decision to go with Silva over Garza, but that's not where the criticism should be aimed. Sure, if you look at it in a vacuum, choosing to hand a rotation spot to an inferior pitcher is a poor move. However, it's really just the predictable and seemingly inevitable end result of a poorly constructed plan that represents a much larger mistake. In fact, at the core it's part of an annual tradition of similarly misguided decisions.

Devoting a huge chunk of the payroll to mediocre veteran starters hurt the Twins' ability to build a strong team and handing 60 percent of the rotation over to those mediocre veteran starters will hurt the Twins' ability to win games with that team. It's debatable which is worse, but I tend to focus on the root instead of the tree. Would picking Garza over Silva have been wise? Perhaps, but regardless of that the decision to commit $4.35 million to Silva and $3.1 million to Ortiz wouldn't have become any better.

The Twins can ditch Silva, Ortiz, and Ponson if they pitch poorly to begin the year. The Twins can quickly call up Garza, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker if they impress at Triple-A. The Twins can bounce back from the slow start Silva, Ortiz, and Ponson may help cause. The Twins can succeed despite wasting a large percentage of their payroll on veteran mediocrity rather then spending it to improve other areas. The Twins can do all of those things, but that doesn't mean they should have to.

The decision to go with Silva over Garza to begin the season doesn't really bother me. What bothers me is everything that led up to that decision and everything that leads to similar decisions being made on a near-annual basis. The names change while the story remains the same, and I'm sick of this particular history repeating itself. Those four days between Johan Santana's starts are going to be long ones. And all for just $9 million.

As hinted at in this space Friday, Howard Sinker of the Minneapolis Star Tribune has set up a blog-sponsored get-together for Twins fans on Saturday, April 7. I'll be there, as will Sinker and Will Young, and I expect at least a couple other Twins bloggers to be in attendance too. It should be a fun time, whether you're interested in meeting some of us bloggers or simply want to watch the Twins play the White Sox with a bunch of other Twins fans. Here are the details:

Who: Howard Sinker, Aaron Gleeman, Will Young, multiple Bloggers to be Named Later, and various other Twins fans and blog readers.

What: Eat, drink, be merry, watch Twins beat White Sox.

Where: Buffalo Wild Wings in Crystal (5590 West Broadway, to be exact).

When: Saturday, April 7, at 2:45 p.m.

Why: Because previous get-togethers have been a lot of fun and good attendance at this one means we can justify doing more of them in the future.

If you're reading this right now and live within driving distance of the Twin Cities, I encourage you to show up, along with multiple car loads of friends and family. If you plan to be there, drop me a note via e-mail or the comments section, so we can get a general idea of what kind of turnout to expect and plan accordingly. For any bloggers out there planning to stop by, please let me know and I'll add your name (and link) to the list of scheduled attendees.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
A few Twins notes with Opening Day (and my closing!) now less than a week away ...

For one day at least, the "Face of the Franchise" was apparently a scowl.

Joe Nathan would like to sign a long-term deal before the end of spring training, but Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that it doesn't sound likely.

The Biz of Baseball's Jerry Differding recently interviewed Terry Ryan and, as usual when Ryan talks on the record with someone, it's worth reading. In particular, Ryan's lengthy response to a question about prospects who haven't developed as the team had hoped stuck out to me:

I am not too bent on looking at raw statistics to decide their fate, you go see them play, watch how they react, see how they compete, what kind of health history they have had, their age versus the league they play in, the ballpark they play at, all those things. If you go and watch them play and continue to see some sort of movement and some sort of mental and physical advancement you don’t give up on them, you just continue to move them along.

While I'm certainly a big believer in minor-league statistics being important in evaluating prospects, I'm in complete agreement with everything Ryan said above. In fact, I'm pleased to see him talking about placing "raw statistics" in the context of age, level of competition, and playing environment, all of which are things I focus on when putting together my own prospect rankings each year. With that said, the second half of his answer struck a nerve with me for whatever reason:

There is no better example than Cuddyer. He never had great statistics in the minor leagues. You just keep moving them along and if you have faith, and see that they are going to be a good teammate, work hard in pregame, work on situational hitting and on their base running you just keep them moving.

Again, I agree with Ryan's overall premise about how to treat prospects whose numbers don't match their potential, but the idea that "there is no better example" of that than Michael Cuddyer is untrue to the point of being the opposite of reality. Specifically, Ryan's statement that Cuddyer "never had great statistics in the minor leagues" is simply false. In reality, people like me touted Cuddyer as someone the Twins should give 500 at-bats to because of his consistently outstanding numbers in the minors.

Prior to Cuddyer finally being given a chance to work his way into an everyday role over the course of nearly the entire 2006 season, I spent countless words here and elsewhere describing what I felt was the Twins' misguided treatment of him. I didn't like the way they jerked him in and out of the lineup based on a couple weeks' worth of performance, and I didn't like the way they demoted him back to the minors after he clearly had nothing left to prove there.

There are several reasons for why I felt that way, but without question chief among them was the fact that Cuddyer's minor-league numbers were excellent and suggested that he would become a very good major-league player if given the opportunity to do so. And so you don't think this is merely after-the-fact rationalizing on my behalf, here's something I wrote about Cuddyer for The Hardball Times back in May of 2004:

Cuddyer has been an excellent hitter in the minor leagues, hitting .308/.380/.541 in 139 games at Triple-A and .301/.396/.560 in 141 Double-A games.

There's plenty more where that came from, but I'll limit the self-quoting to one more passage from that same article. Back then the Twins were into giving Cuddyer brief "chances" to establish himself both offensively and defensively at a new position, before pulling the plug and jerking him around again. On that particular date second base was the position and then-starter (and former AG.com whipping boy) Luis Rivas was his competition, so I compared the two players:

Rivas has played every day for years and Cuddyer has been given brief stints of a week or two at ever-changing positions, before getting sent back to Triple-A or the bench. ... Given a chance to establish himself at one position, to get his feet entrenched in the job like Rivas has, I have no doubt that Cuddyer would blow Rivas out of the water offensively.

"Blowing Rivas out of the water offensively" is obviously no great feat, but the larger point remains. Suggesting that "there is no better example" than Cuddyer of a prospect whose numbers didn't match his potential is like saying Johan Santana is a perfect example of someone who wasn't helped by developing a changeup at Triple-A or Joe Mauer is the best example of someone who turned into a great player despite not being highly touted coming out of high school.

From Cuddyer to Santana to Mauer, each of those three statements are clearly false. In Cuddyer's case, anyone who could look at his track record and conclude that "he never had great statistics in the minor leagues" while suggesting he's an example of a prospect who numbers underrated is either deliberately attempting to spin the issue in a different direction or simply doesn't know what he's talking about. For the record, I would never accuse Ryan of failing to know what he's talking about.

The Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune, reports that the Twins have more or less decided upon which 25 players they'll break camp with next week. As Ron Gardenhire put it yesterday, "We pretty much know what we are going to do. We aren't going to announce it right now, but pretty much know." It sounds like the Twins wanted to go with 11 pitchers and 14 position players, but are re-thinking that with Lew Ford and Alejandro Machado sidelined.

LEN3 makes it sounds like J.D. Durbin has little chance of making the team despite having no options left, which means the Twins will either trade him for whatever they can get or risk losing him on waivers. With Durbin apparently out of the picture, that leaves No. 1 prospect Matt Garza and 33-year-old situational left-hander Mike Venafro fighting for the 12th spot on the pitching staff, assuming Gardenhire and Ryan don't shake things up in a big way by demoting Carlos Silva to Triple-A.

Every indication is that the Twins are extremely disappointed with Silva's spring performance and very impressed with how well Garza has pitched, but Silva's $4.35 million contract clouds the issue. All of which is why I spent most of the winter discussing what a bad idea it is to give large amounts of guaranteed money to pitchers who had ERAs nearing 6.00 last year. There's no doubt that Garza is one of the team's five best starters, yet there's plenty of doubt about whether he'll have a rotation spot.

Even setting aside the fact that I expect the veteran trio of Silva, Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson to collectively pitch horribly for the $9 million the Twins will be paying them, breaking camp with a non-optimal team in place for reasons that go far beyond on-field factors is a shame. Of course, it's also par for the course with the Twins. As I've lamented before, between Garza, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker it's very possible that four of the Twins' six best starters will be in Rochester.

UPDATE: LEN3 reports that the Twins have cut Venafro (plus Matthew LeCroy and others) despite his 0.00 spring ERA and the stated preference for a second left-handed pitcher in the bullpen alongside Dennys Reyes. The Twins may be hoping that Venafro will accept the demotion to Triple-A and potentially join the team later, much like Reyes did. They now have 29 players left in camp, including Garza and Durbin.

UPDATE: LaVelle E. Neal III reports that Joe Mauer has a potentially serious leg injury:

Twins catcher Joe Mauer has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left fibula. He will be treated with a bone stimulator and physical therapy and will be re-evaluated on Sunday.

Mauer came to the ballpark today complaining of soreness in the leg. An MRI was taken, which revealed the stress reaction.

A stress reaction is considered a precursor to a stress fracture. The Twins say they are optimistic that the condition was diagnosed early enough to keep it from becoming a serious long-term problem.

I'll try to post most details as they become available, but ... well, I guess it's not worth getting worked up over quite yet.

UPDATE #2: Two people with knowledge of the situation have contacted me to say that the Twins think Mauer will be able to avoid being sidelined for a significant length of time and may actually be in the Opening Day lineup. So, for now at least, disaster averted.

It's early yet, but Jason Williams' replacement at the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Kelsie Smith, has been pumping out some good articles. Among them is a well-written piece that looks at the early stages of Francisco Liriano's lengthy comeback from Tommy John surgery, including how things might change once his elbow allows him to begin throwing again:

Once Liriano gets back on the mound, [pitching coach Rick] Anderson said they would work to smooth out his delivery. "We'll make some adjustments to keep him (facing) the catcher more instead of being violent and falling off (the mound)," Anderson said. "If anything is good about this, it's that he's starting over with his delivery."

Liriano said he's not going to "put away" the wicked slider ... "I'm going to throw my slider, too, you know," Liriano said, "but I'm going to throw more of my changeup, my two-seamer."

Last season, Liriano hesitated in telling manager Ron Gardenhire when his elbow was bothering him. He said he's learned now that it's more important to be honest. "I'm more open this year," Liriano said. "Last year, that was my first year, I wanted to pitch, make sure that I was going to be up the whole year with a major league team. I thought if I got hurt they might send me down to Triple-A."

Between Smith's solid start on the Twins beat and the Pioneer Press' long-overdue website redesign, it's been a good week for the Twin Cities' "other" newspaper.

The source of Alejandro Machado's ongoing shoulder problems was found to be a partially torn labrum that will sideline him well into the season and may require surgery. Machado is a Rule 5 pick, which means the Twins have to offer him back to the Nationals if they fail to keep him on the major-league roster for the entire season, but the injury allows them to stash him on the disabled list and buy some additional time to make a decision.

Between the natural amount of time needed for Machado's shoulder to heal up and the long and leisurely minor-league rehab assignment the Twins could send him on once he's reasonably healthy, the team could put off a decision for most of the year. Of course, while that makes it a little easier to keep Machado in the organization long term, it also means the Twins are without a backup middle infielder right now.

Thankfully, Ron Gardenhire appears to have softened on his initial stance about Nick Punto sticking solely to third base, indicating that he'd be willing to use Punto to back up Jason Bartlett at shortstop if necessary. Not only is that an obvious, reasonable solution, it would allow the Twins to keep Jeff Cirillo and Luis Rodriguez as the backup infielders despite the fact that neither of them can handle shortstop.

With Machado out of the picture there was briefly talk of keeping Alexi Casilla as a backup, but the Twins smartly realized that would waste development and service time. While interviewing Gardenhire at the Winter Meetings in December, I asked if Casilla "would be the guy coming up if there was an injury to an infielder." Gardenhire said Casilla "impressed the heck out of us" and "would probably be first in line." Asked a similar question by a real reporter this week, Gardenhire gave the same answer:

Casilla is one of those guys that if something happened to one of my infielders after the season starts, and it's for an extended period, he's the guy I'd want out there playing.

I suspect that both Gardenhire and Terry Ryan would ideally like to be able to keep Casilla at Triple-A until September, before handing him the starting job at second base next spring following Luis Castillo's departure. Assuming Bartlett and Castillo can stay relatively healthy, it's a plan that should work as long as Gardenhire is willing to take advantage of Punto's defensive versatility.

Apparently Sidney Ponson's relationship with the Baltimore media while playing for the Orioles was pretty horrible, because plenty of ugliness on both sides was documented by various newspapers when Ponson pitched against his former team last week. For instance, here's how the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly began a column about Ponson:

Different uniform and different hairstyle. Same old Sidney Ponson.

The Prodigal Right-hander was back at Fort Lauderdale Stadium yesterday, happily greeting old teammates, taking jabs at Orioles fans and stiffing the Baltimore media. It was like old times, except he now has a thick dark mullet, wears the Minnesota Twins stripes and hasn't posed for a mug shot in months.

It's interesting to note than Ponson appears to have a good relationship with Joe Christensen, who covered Ponson in Baltimore before joining the Minneapolis Star Tribune last year. More importantly, Ponson appears to have secured the final spot in the Twins' starting rotation, predictably beating out Matt Garza and Glen Perkins. In other words, as I've been fearing all offseason, the Twins will pay $9 million and give 60 percent of their starts to a trio of pitchers who combined for a 5.84 ERA last season.

Even Baby Dash can see the problem with that.

Justin Morneau and the Twins have ended contract negotiations without agreeing to a long-term deal. Morneau reportedly turned down a deal that was similar to the four-year, $33 million contract that Joe Mauer agreed to this offseason, but doesn't seem overly upset about it: "Oh, well. I'll just have a good year and we'll try to get something done next year." Because of Morneau's service time, he won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2010 season anyway, which means a four-year deal would have simply given the Twins some cost certainty.

A quick update on two former Twins: Willie Eyre was sent to Triple-A by the Rangers and Cristian Guzman is still fighting his way back from shoulder problems with the Nationals.

As part of their ongoing team-by-team season previews, I appeared on Baseball Prospectus Radio to discuss the Twins with Will Carroll. Click here to listen to what is, I think, the first over-the-phone radio interview I've ever agreed to do.

Friend of AG.com Tom Tango is running "community forecasts" to see if the "wisdom of crowds" can out-perform various projection systems when it comes to predicting how players will fare this season. He's specifically looking for some hardcore Twins fans to share their predictions, so go check it out.

Previous Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50.

Below you'll find the final installment of my fifth annual ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, which is not to be confused with the team-specific "Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007" series that I completed last month. I began publishing my prospect rankings back in 2003 at the Baseball Primer site that has since become Baseball Think Factory, and the 2004, 2005, and 2006 versions can all be found at The Hardball Times.

These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.

10. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2006     A-      2      2     0.00       4.0       1      0      10      1
         A+      6      6     1.95      27.2      13      3      48     12

A diminutive right-hander with a unique delivery, Tim Lincecum fell to the Giants with the No. 10 pick in last June's draft despite leading college baseball in strikeouts. He destroyed the low minors after signing, combining to whiff 58 batters in 31 innings while holding opponents to a .127 batting average, and his mid-90s fastball caused a stir this spring. He has skeptics, but others make a compelling case for Lincecum's delivery as an asset and there's no denying his potential for overpowering hitters.

9. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | SP | Age: 21 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2004     RK      6      6     0.47      19.1      14      0      23      4
2005     A-     26     18     2.74     121.1     100      5     110     51
2006     A+     13     13     2.09      77.2      54      4     103     23
         AA     13     13     1.63      77.1      50      2      85     28

A second-round pick out of a Texas high school in 2004, Yovani Gallardo pitched very well in the low minors during his first two pro seasons and then put together an amazing year between Single-A and Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2006. Making 13 starts at each level, Gallardo led the minor leagues with 188 strikeouts, posted a 1.86 ERA in 156 innings, held opponents to a .192 batting average, and used his ground-ball tendencies to serve up just six homers.

8. Matt Garza | Minnesota Twins | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2005     RK      4      4     3.66      19.2      14      3      25      6
         A-     10     10     3.54      56.0      53      5      64     15
2006     A+      8      8     1.42      44.1      27      3      53     11
         AA     10     10     2.51      57.1      40      2      68     14
        AAA      5      5     1.85      34.0      20      1      33      7
        MLB     10      9     5.76      50.0      62      6      38     23

A 2005 first-round pick out of Fresno State who emerged as an elite prospect last year, much was made of Matt Garza's struggles with the Twins. However, Garza seemed fatigued at the end of what was his first full season and posted a solid 4.75 ERA over 47.1 innings after an ugly debut. Before that he had a 1.99 ERA and 154-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 135.2 innings blitzing through three levels, holding opponents to a .179 batting average. A No. 3 starter now and a potential ace down the road.

7. Adam Miller | Cleveland Indians | SP | Age: 22 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2004     A-     19     19     3.36      91.0      79      7     106     28
         A+      8      8     2.08      43.1      29      1      46     12
2005     A-      3      3     5.06      10.2      17      0       6      4
         A+     12     12     4.83      59.2      76      5      45     17
2006     AA     26     24     2.75     153.2     129      9     157     43

The 31st overall pick in the 2003 draft, Adam Miller put together a strong 2004 season before an elbow injury limited him to 70.1 mediocre innings in 2005. He came back strong in 2006 as a 21-year-old at Double-A, posting a 2.75 ERA and 157-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 153.2 innings. Armed with a fastball-slider combination that produces tons of ground balls, Miller held opponents to a .226 batting average and nine homers. After impressing the Indians this spring, his time at Triple-A could be brief.

6. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3B | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     A-     244     .283     .375     .525     13     33     29     30
         A+     219     .237     .295     .434     10     23     17     42
2005     A+     249     .333     .380     .651     21     36     19     38
         AA     227     .273     .367     .445      9     21     32     54
2006     AA     230     .309     .419     .483      9     22     41     32
        AAA     202     .322     .400     .550     10     25     25     32

Son of former two-time All-Star pitcher Dave LaRoche and brother of current Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche, Andy LaRoche first made a name for himself by hitting .305 with 30 homers between Single-A and Double-A in 2005. He followed that up by hitting .315 with 19 homers between Double-A and Triple-A while playing through a torn labrum, posting a fantastic 64-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 117 games. Considered a solid defensive third baseman, LaRoche's all-around game is without flaw.

5. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | SP | Age: 21 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2004     RK      6      3     4.38      12.1      14      0       9      3
2005     A-     28     21     4.43     103.2      89      5     125     62
2006     A+     13     13     3.31      70.2      49      6      79     22
         AA     13     13     1.59      68.0      50      1      77     28

The seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft out of a Texas high school, Homer Bailey began last season dominating hitters at high Single-A and then stepped it up a notch beyond that following a midseason promotion to Double-A. A 20-year-old facing much older competition, Bailey went 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 77-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 68 innings. There was talk of Bailey possibly joining the Reds in September and again this spring, but he'll begin the year in the minors to gain a little more polish.

4. Delmon Young | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | RF | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     A-     513     .320     .386     .536     25     56     53    120
2005     AA     330     .336     .386     .582     20     37     25     66
        AAA     228     .285     .303     .447      6     22      4     33
2006    AAA     342     .316     .341     .474      8     34     15     65
        MLB     126     .317     .336     .476      3     13      1     24

The No. 1 pick in the 2003 draft, Delmon Young hit .326 with 45 homers and 78 walks in his first 215 games while reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old, but has since seen his power and plate discipline decline. Young continued to hit well after a promotion to Triple-A in mid-2005, batting .306 over a 168-game stretch that includes a month in the majors, but managed just 17 homers and 20 walks during that span. He's still bound for stardom, but might be a different type of hitter than he initially appeared.

3. Chris Young | Arizona Diamondbacks | CF | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     A-     465     .262     .365     .505     24     60     66    145
2005     AA     466     .277     .377     .545     26     70     70    129
2006    AAA     402     .276     .363     .532     21     57     52     71
        MLB      70     .243     .308     .386      2      6      6     12

The most underrated elite prospect in baseball, Chris Young is an outstanding defensive center fielder with big-time power, speed, and plate discipline. With 275 strikeouts between 2004 and 2005 his main weakness had been making consistent contact, but Young made huge strides in that department last season, striking out a total of 83 times in 472 at-bats between Triple-A and Arizona. The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, Young is capable of a 20-20 season right out of the gates.

2. Philip Hughes | New York Yankees | SP | Age: 21 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2005     A-     12     12     1.97      68.2      46      1      72     16
         A+      5      4     3.06      17.2       8      0      21      4
2006     A+      5      5     1.80      30.0      19      0      30      2
         AA     21     21     2.25     116.0      73      5     138     32

Taken in the first round of the 2004 draft out of a California high school, Philip Hughes has emerged as the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball thanks to electric stuff and impeccable numbers. After thoroughly dominating the low minors to begin his pro career, Hughes made the leap to Double-A as a 20-year-old, posting a 2.25 ERA, .179 opponent's batting average, and 138-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 116 innings. An extreme ground-ball pitcher, Hughes is a near-perfect pitching prospect.

1. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals | 3B | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2006     AA     486     .325     .427     .588     29     69     72    113

After winning the Golden Spikes Award during his final season at Nebraska, Alex Gordon went No. 2 overall in the 2005 draft behind Justin Upton. He jumped all the way to Double-A for his pro debut and filled the stat sheet by hitting .325 with 29 homers, 69 total extra-base hits, 72 walks, and 22 steals in 130 games. With Mark Teahen moving to right field, Gordon is expected to begin the season as the Royals' starting third baseman and is an obvious frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year.

I'm the type of guy who laughs at the people who get upset over talking about a no-hitter while it's going on, so I'm perfectly willing to make this announcement despite the presence of a potential jinx. Things aren't quite official just yet--there's still an inspection to conduct this afternoon and a closing to sit through--but barring a last-minute change that would make me reconsider the whole talking-during-a-no-hitter thing, I'm now the proud owner of a beautiful 2,020-square foot home.

A busy weekend filled with paperwork and negotiating kept me from producing actual written content for today, but in the absence of that I do have some nice pictures to share. In the interest of space and combating boredom I'll leave the bathrooms, dining room, utility room, and deck off the tour, but here's a room-by-room look at the place (furniture not included) ...

Front:


Living room (13 x 14):


Kitchen (9 x 18):


Family room (14 x 14):


Master bedroom (17 x 16):


Second bedroom (11 x 13):


Amusement room (23 x 12):


Patio (16 x 17):


All that and it'll only take me until May 1, 2037 to pay it off! In the meantime, if you have suggestions regarding painting, furniture, and DirecTV installation, drop me an e-mail or a note in the comments section.

Someone going by the name "aweb" left the following comment here the other day:

What's the point of keeping the personal blog going if you aren't going to link to stuff you have on other sites? I know some have complained about that, but I hereby complain that you don't link to articles you have written for other spots enough. As long as you keep producing stuff here, I think you should be more free with links to yourself.

The "point of keeping the personal blog going" is that I write thousands of words here every week that don't appear anywhere else--most of them about the Twins, non-sports topics, or my personal life--but I understand the basic point he's trying to make and have heard plenty of similar comments in the past when I haven't linked to something I've done elsewhere. Of course, when I do link to stuff I've done at other places, I get complaints about self-promotion.

For the most part, I avoid linking to my work at Rotoworld.com and NBCSports.com, because I assume that the majority of the people reading AG.com are aware that I appear on those sites--whether in writing or on video--on a regular basis. In fact, during the baseball and football seasons I essentially write for those sites every day. On the other hand, it does bother me that people who enjoy my work might not see all of it because I'm not doing a thorough enough job telling them where to find it.

So, at the risk of boring and angering many of you, here are some links to recent, non-AG.com work I've done:

I wrote the Minnesota Twins installment of the ongoing, team-by-team season preview over at the world-famous Deadspin, which is one of the few sites that I make sure to check multiple times per day. Deadspin has about a billion daily readers and Will Leitch was kind enough to write an article for The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007, so I was happy to oblige when he asked if I'd pen the Twins preview.

If you decide to read it, keep in mind that it was written for a non-Minnesota audience that isn't nearly as obsessed with the Twins (or baseball in general) as the people who read AG.com on a regular basis, so the information is pretty basic and there's not a whole lot of analysis. I did touch on a couple things that I haven't written about here much in the past (while admittedly lapsing into a Jim Souhan-like shtick at times) and I'm especially proud of the article's conclusion, which wraps everything up nicely.

I managed to get Jason Kubel pictured prominently on the front page of Rotoworld for most of the day yesterday, because he's featured in my new fantasy draft strategy column. In addition to Kubel, the column also includes Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, Rondell White, Alexi Casilla, and Glen Perkins, so it's worth reading for Twins fans even if you're not into fantasy baseball and have absolutely zero use for a list of "AL-only sleepers."

Part of the reason you're not reading a more substantial blog entry right now is that I've spent much of this week taping "Fantasy Fix" episodes for NBCSports.com. With Opening Day fast approaching, the show is doing position-by-position fantasy previews. So far they've posted the videos for starting pitchers and relief pitchers, and the remaining positions should be available for consumption within the next few days.

The show is hosted out of New York by the capable and charming duo of Tiffany Simons and Gregg Rosenthal, and my segments are strictly of the call-in variety, so you won't be able to catch a glimpse of my post-surgery ear. However, you can hear my never-ending quest to spread the word about Johan Santana's greatness while staring at a goofy headshot of me. Or you can just look at Tiffany (or Gregg, if that's what you're into). Either way.

Finally, Will Young and John Bonnes are planning to meet up at Joe Senser's in Bloomington at around 3:15 this afternoon to watch the first-round NCAA tournament games. I'm hoping to attend as well, although I'm making no promises because it depends upon how smoothly this morning's video shoots go and how much work I can get done before then. And yes, I realize this is awfully short notice for those of you who work "real" jobs.

I'm not 100 percent certain that I'll be able to show up, but if I am able to make it I'll a) bring my gross-looking right ear along for everyone to gawk at, and b) gladly buy a beer for any AG.com reader who stops by. Plus, watching the tournament with an obsessed George Washington alum and the Twins Geek probably beats hanging out with me anyway, free beer or not. So yeah ... hopefully I'll see a few of you there this afternoon. (If you're planning to show up, drop me a note in the comments section.)

UPDATE: The good news is that I'm dangerously close to buying a house. The bad news is that I probably won't be able to make it to Senser's today. But like I said, go hang out with Will and John anyway. Feel free to say bad things about me to them behind my back, since my ear is already bleeding anyway.

Previous Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 21-30, 31-40, 41-50.

Below you'll find the fourth installment of my fifth annual ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, which is not to be confused with the team-specific "Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007" series that I completed last month. I began publishing my prospect rankings back in 2003 at the Baseball Primer site that has since become Baseball Think Factory, and the 2004, 2005, and 2006 versions can all be found at The Hardball Times.

These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.

20. Adam Jones | Seattle Mariners | CF | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     A-     510     .267     .314     .404     11     41     33    124
2005     A+     271     .295     .374     .494      8     33     29     64
         AA     228     .298     .365     .461      7     20     22     48
2006    AAA     380     .287     .345     .484     16     39     28     78
        MLB      74     .216     .237     .311      1      5      2     22

The 37th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Adam Jones began his pro career as a shortstop before shifting to center field last season. Though still rough around the edges, he's reportedly made great strides and has the skills to be a Gold Glover. Jones also has the potential to be an impact bat, although his numbers thus far have been merely good thanks in large part to the Mariners pushing their prospects more aggressively than other organizations, including calling an unprepared Jones up at the age of 20.

19. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies | SS | Age: 22 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2005     A+      94     .266     .343     .457      4     10      9     18
2006     AA     423     .291     .370     .473     13     49     46     71
        MLB      96     .240     .318     .292      1      3     10     25

After three years as Long Beach State's starting shortstop, the Rockies grabbed Troy Tulowitzki with the No. 7 pick in the 2005 draft and moved him quickly through the system. Tulowitzki began his first full season at Double-A, hitting .291/.370/.473 in 104 games before getting the call up to Colorado in August. He struggled in 25 games there and is battling Clint Barmes for the starting job this spring, but is without question the Rockies' long-term answer at shortstop. He should be solid, but unspectacular.

18. Luke Hochevar | Kansas City Royals | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2006     A-      4      4     1.17      15.1       8      2      16      2

After going 15-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his final season at Tennessee, Luke Hochevar fell to the Dodgers with the 40th pick in the 2005 draft because his signability was in question. He failed to reach an agreement and re-entered the draft last June after playing in an independent league, going No. 1 overall to the Royals. The whole thing cost Hochevar some development time, but he gained about $2 million, blew away Single-A hitters after signing, and should be in the majors by midseason anyway.

17. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels | 3B | Age: 22 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     A-     478     .251     .322     .404     11     46     46    117
2005     A+     536     .321     .383     .672     43     98     48    128
2006     AA     453     .276     .355     .552     25     71     54    149

The recent move from shortstop to third base lessens Brandon Wood's long-term stock, but offense remains his primary asset. After busting out with a record-breaking season at high Single-A in 2005, Wood followed it up by hitting .276/.355/.552 in 118 games at Double-A last year. His huge strikeout totals are a major concern and may keep him from posting good batting averages, but slugging third basemen with mediocre on-base percentages still have plenty of value.

16. Andrew Miller | Detroit Tigers | SP | Age: 22 | Throws: Left
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2006     A+      3      0     0.00       5.0       2      0       9      1
        MLB      8      0     6.10      10.1       8      0       6     10

Considered by many to be the top player in last June's draft coming out of North Carolina, Andrew Miller dropped to the Tigers with the No. 6 pick due to his bonus demands. He eventually received over $5 million in guaranteed money and was called up in August as part of the deal. A 6-foot-6 left-hander with a mid-90s fastball, Miller struggled to find the plate out of the Tigers' bullpen, but his long-term home is at the top of the rotation. He'll begin this year in the minors, but should see Detroit by August.

15. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 3B | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2006     A-      33     .424     .487     .879      4      6      5      5
         A+     110     .327     .402     .618      8     16     13     19
         AA     105     .267     .266     .486      6     11      1     20

Considered one of the few top-notch hitters in last June's draft after batting .353/.468/.602 at Long Beach State, Evan Longoria went third overall and blitzed through the minors, hitting .315/.360/.597 in 62 games between low Single-A, high Single-A, and Double-A. Drawing just one walk while striking out 20 times at Double-A is concerning, but Longoria had a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio in college and at both levels of Single-A. He looks likely to reach Tampa Bay by midseason, probably at third base.

14. Reid Brignac | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | SS | Age: 21 | Bats: Left
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     RK      97     .361     .413     .474      1      7      9     10
2005     A-     512     .264     .319     .416     15     46     40    131
2006     A+     411     .326     .382     .557     21     50     35     82
         AA     110     .300     .355     .473      3     11      7     31

A second-round pick in 2004, Reid Brignac hit .361 in rookie-ball, struggled at low Single-A in 2005, and broke out with a huge season between Single-A and Double-A last year. He won the California League MVP before hitting .300 after a late-season promotion, combining to bat .321/.376/.539 with 24 homers in 128 games as a 20-year-old. There's some question about whether he can remain at shortstop long term, but Brignac's glove has reportedly improved and his bat fits anywhere.

13. Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2006     A+      4      4     1.64      22.0      17      1      26      2
         AA     12     12     2.71      66.1      60      2      77     26
        AAA      2      2     2.25       8.0       4      1       6      5
        MLB      4      4     5.48      21.1      25      1      13     12

Mike Pelfrey finished his amazing three-year run at Wichita State by going 12-3 with a 1.93 ERA in 2005, but high bonus demands allowed the Mets to snatch him up with No. 9 pick. Pelfrey has since shown why he was widely considered the top pitching talent available, making his big-league debut midway through his first pro season. He struggled with the Mets, but posted a 2.43 ERA and 109-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 96 minor-league innings, and should be in New York for good by midseason.

12. Andrew McCutchen | Pittsburgh Pirates | CF | Age: 20 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2005     RK     158     .297     .411     .430      2     14     29     24
         RK      52     .346     .443     .442      0      4      8      6
2006     A-     453     .291     .356     .446     14     38     42     91
         AA      78     .308     .379     .474      3      7      8     20

Justin Upton, Fernando Martinez, and Cameron Maybin get far more attention among 20-and-under center-field prospects, but Andrew McCutchen is one step ahead of them while offering a similar set of impressive all-around skills. Not only has McCutchen done well in the low minors--hitting .297 with 16 homers, 56 total extra-base hits, 39 steals, and 79 walks in 172 games between rookie-ball and low Single-A--he also hit .308/.379/.474 in 20 games at Double-A as a 19-year-old.

11. Billy Butler | Kansas City Royals | LF | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
 
YEAR     LV      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2004     RK     260     .373     .488     .596     10     35     57     63
2005     A+     379     .348     .419     .636     25     57     42     80
         AA     112     .313     .353     .527      5     14      7     18
2006     AA     477     .331     .388     .499     15     49     41     67

Based on hitting alone Billy Butler is one of the elite prospects in baseball, but his complete lack of defensive value drops him in these rankings. Originally a third baseman when the Royals made him the 14th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Butler is currently a left fielder and will likely end up at designated hitter. A .344 hitter in 314 pro games who turns 21 years old next month, Butler combines huge power potential with good strike-zone control and has a chance to become an all-around offensive monster.